Market Recon Friday

Good Morning,
                       There was that “pop” on the close last night… on top of that continuous three day run after planet Earth realized that there had been a gross over-reaction to Brexit.  Time to take profits ??  Already there, at least for Brexit related trades.  Time to get short  ??  If Mark Carney is going to react to a severely devalued currency by devaluing his currency, and we already know that the BOJ will be forced to act, while the ECB prepares to buy everything & anything… well, that’s a freight train that I might not step in front of.  Increase one’s allocation to Gold ??  Yeah, we’re behind the curve on that one.  Probably act on the next serious dip.
                      Where does this all leave Janet Yellen, and her band of policy decision makers ??  Consensus among sentient beings seems to be that her hands are tied in this economic environment, True, more concerning the global economic, and political landscape is unknown at this time than we could possibly be comfortable with.  Yet, markets have rebounded far more quickly than anyone anticipated a week ago.  The compression in bond yields is simply fascinating.  What if the manufacturing number comes in fairly strong today, which is more than a remote possibility.  What if the NFP print looks a lot better next Friday, and drags along with it a positive revision to last month’s awful number ??  What if all of this actually creates a significantly higher estimate for Q2 GDP ??  It would be hard to hide behind a weak Core PCE when Core CPI has printed above your stated target for seven consecutive months.  So interesting, don’t you think ??  I guess we’ll just wait til we see that June ISM number, and take it from there.
                     Have a great Independence Day everyone.  Let me just leave you with a line from a little diddy that always makes myself, and a lot of folks I know cry.
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“And the rockets’ red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there”
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It’s still there.  Always.
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Macro
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All Day
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Total Vehicle Sales (June):  This one is not a real time market moving event, simply because it takes hours to develop.  That said, there will be single stock impact as each auto maker releases their numbers individually.  For June, we look for an annualized print of 17.3 million units at the top line, off from May’s 17.45 million.  A severe miss here would have sorry implications for the overall health of the US consumer, and Mr. Market would take notice.
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09:45 ET
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Markit Manufacturing PMI (June):  This one might matter….. for 15 minutes.  the May final came in at 50.7, and the June flash popped to 51.4.  The expectation for today is that the flash number holds.  Markets will look ahead to the ISM print.
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10:00 ET
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ISM Manufacturing Index (June): With the hit that the manufacturing sector has taken in this country, it really is amazing that this ISM number is expected to print above 50 for the fourth month in a row today.  The actual projection is for something close to 51.4, aided by three Fed districts of five that posted manufacturing data in a state of expansion this month.  I have not seen a single economist below 50 on this one.  Could be a market positive if there is much early profit taking off of last night’s close.
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Construction Spending (May):  This data-point printed at a very nasty -1.8% m/m contraction for April.  Does that matter ??  Probably not.  For four consecutive months, the current data has been released along with a significant upward revision to the last month’s print.  If the pattern holds, we’ll see a miss for the expected 0.6% m/m growth for May, and we’ll see April’s release modied to something closer to the flat-line.
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11:00 ET
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Fed Speaker:  Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester will speak from London on policy.  She is a voting member of the FOMC, and she will open herself up to questions from the audience.  This is one of those sneaky items that not everyone has on their calendars that actually could move markets.
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13:00 ET
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Baker Hughes Rig Count (Weekly):  Strange day for the energy sector yesterday.  WTI Crude plummets 3%, while the sector stayed comfortably in the green….. perhaps due to that big find off of Guyana that’s supposed to lower production costs.  Regardless, particularly the Oil rig count will move the needle for the commodity.  We’re coming off of a 330 tag here, 421 if you include Nat Gas.

Lunchtime Recon

Good Afternoon,

                       Well, well, well.  The Bank of England’s Mark Carney talks about easing monetary policy over the Summer due to deteriorating economic conditions.  Down goes the British Pound.  Up goes the FTSE 100, up go US equities taking Treasury prices with them.  Everyone loves easy money.  Right??  That speech did spark an upside move for the DXY, and the Japanese Yen.  That’s not so good, is it?
                       Already seeing a tremendous devaluation in their currency, the BOE talks up easing their policy.  Let that sink in.  They haven’t seen economic hardship yet due to the Brexit fallout.  All of the buyers and sellers that create a market for goods and services are still in place.  Fundamentally, wouldn’t you give your already dramatically weaker currency a chance before pouring kerosene on the fire.  Does this now mean that Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi, and Hiruhiko Kuroda line up and do the wave.  Currency war.  Oh, did anyone see the news out of the PBOC today ??  Don’t forget that James Bullard, the most volatile, and least responsible voting member of the FOMC speaks this afternoon.
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                       Let’s check on today’s winners, and losers.
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1) S&P 500 resistance is currently at 2084, which seems to have held on the first attempt made by the index.  If this level cracks, we look at 2093 to the upside.  On the way down there is some traffic at 2078, and 2072.
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2) All ten sectors are in the green this morning being led by Staples for obvious reasons.  As a sector, Health Care is bring up the rear, while the Transports struggle as a group.
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3) Still no real profit taking for Gold.  Is it possible that ones not coming.  It really depends on how folks read central banking intentions.  WTI Crude may be off 2%, but the Energy sector has again uncoupled from it’s primary underlying commodity.
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4)  Still should see a re-balancing of asset classes tonight, though some of those moves have obviously already happened, and recent moves in the equity space will have made some moves less necessary.

Market Recon Thursday

Good Morning,
                       Last day of Q2.  If the last two days are any evidence at all, we’ve seen at least some of the expected pension fund rebalance in action already.  The dynamic two day recovery for equity prices, coupled with the sell-off that started yesterday for bonds (and has continued this morning) could abate the impact of this rebalance somewhat, but I think that most of us would have taken where we now stand a couple of days ago with a big smile.  No worries, you’ll still see some action today.  Plenty of it.
                      These kinds of dislocations, and speedy recoveries are not something we see very often in a career.  If you did not act,  you might not see an opportunity like that again for a while, but did you learn something ??  Did you ever play sports ??  You studied game tape, right ??  This is no different.  Pull out your currency exchange rate charts, your sovereign bond yield charts, and the charts of whatever you traded.  Three day weekend coming up.  Do the homework, or be mediocre.  Your move.
                      It’s likely that if you did wade into certain markets on Monday, that your targets are already being reached.  Stick to your plan.  Discipline.  Being greedy in the face of victory may work once.  It may work twice.  Losing your discipline will cost you your edge, which will cost you for ten years.  Learned from experience.
                      Stress Tests !!  Huzzah !!  Everybody passes, with the exception of a couple of European names.  I know that it’s just a simulation, but still the test is pretty rigorous.  The environment imposed on these ‘war-games” by the Fed includes a 10% Unemployment Rate, a 50% reduction in equity values, negative interest rates across the field of US Treasuries, and an insolvency by a major counterparty.  The banks may survive all of that, but no word on how their customers might make out. (Whoa)  Regardless, buybacks, and dividends for all.  Many of your favorites wasted no time making new announcements last night.
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Macro
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08:30 ET
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Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly):   This item came in below (that’s good) consensus last week at 259K.  Due it’s consistent ability to remain below 300K, this item has lost the focus that market participants had formerly placed upon it.  For today, we expect 267K, which also happens to be the four week moving average.  The range today, however is much wider than I have seen in quite some time, spanning from 245K to 270K, indicating some lack of confidence in the expectation.
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09:45 ET
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Chicago PMI (June):  Some folks probably place more importance on this one than it deserves.  For one, this item is strictly regional, and for another, it includes data from both the manufacturing, and service sectors, so this is not truly comparable to much else out there.  This data-point is also very difficult for economists to accurately predict, as was evident for May when the 49.3 print beat the 50.8 expectation by the narrowest margin since August of 2015.  For today, we look for something close to 50.6.
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10:30 ET
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Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly):  A word of caution here.  Nat Gas has been very volatile this week (even more so than a lot of other dollar denominated commodities), and even during a mundane week… Nat Gas futures can be tough to trade on a Thursday morning.  Consensus view for this week is an inventory build of 52 billion cubic feet, which would be the eleventh consecutive weekly increase in this space.
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14:00 ET
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Fed Speaker: St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard will speak on economic conditions, and monetary policy from London.  The man has quite frankly been a driving force in the Fed’s loss in overall credibility.  Which James Bullard you’ll get today is anybody’s guess.  Can he still move markets with his words ??  Will the marketplace even take him at his word at this point ??
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Earnings
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AM: CAG (.52), STZ (1.52), DRI (1.08), MKC (.74), PAYX (.49)
PM: MU (-.09)

Market Recon Wednesday

Good Morning,
                       Last night’s close was one of those dramatic moments for all chart watchers.  The SPX level of 2034 was plain to see for all.  Momentum to the upside had been halted there three times over the final hour or so.  My fellow chartists, and I had been talking amongst ourselves.  If 2034 could crack with any momentum at all, well… the index could go straight to 2046.  Even the horrific news of the terror attack in Turkey (say a prayer now if you haven’t already) just before the bell could not stop the move over that level.  It was high-five moment.
                      Equity index futures are trading well above fair value early this morning, thanks to a firmer Pound, a firmer Euro, and a Crude friendly API number last night.  Perhaps global markets are waking to fact that the global marketplace is unchanged.  Prices may be rapidly changing due to volatile currency exchange rates.  Fundamentally though, for all goods, and services that trade internationally…. there are still buyers, and sellers.  They did not go away.  There is always a point of sale.  Finding it… is our job.  Will there be recession in the UK, the EMU, the US ??  There was a chance even without a Brexit vote,  Especially this late in a recovery that has never really had much momentum behind it.    (Half of the people in our country don’t even know that we ever left recession.)
                     Larry Summers called the Brexit vote the “worst political misstep in Europe since World War II”.  Summers also let us know that central bankers are low on ammo.  Never would have figured that one out on our own.   If this is not fear-mongering, I don’t know what is.  I guess we can forgive Larry.  It’s not like the 43 year Cold War happened during the prime of his life or anything.  It’s not like Europe was involved in that arena at all.  NATO, Warsaw Pact, partitioning of Germany, massive capital allocations toward defense.  Yeah, you’re right Larry… the Brexit vote dwarfs all of that silly stuff.
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Macro
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08:30 ET
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Personal Income & Consumer Spending (May):  These two items have to be looked at in relationship to each other in order to be best understood.  One really can not get too far ahead of the other, without something going fundamentally wrong.  For April, Spending gapped up 1.0% m/m, versus just an increase in income of just 0.4% m/m.  When spending runs ahead like that, it means either the consumer is confident in his or her ability to spend, or that the consumer is getting themselves into a jam trying to keep up a certain standard of living.  In this case, due to the trend of the four months prior, it looks like Incomes were actually running well ahead of Spending…. making this a case of pent up demand.  Today, expectations are for Income to have increased 0.3% m/m , and for spending to have increased 0.4% m/m.  The ranges for both are rather tight, so any surprises will be just that.
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PCE Price Index (May):  This is the Federal Reserve favored measure for consumer level inflation.  Now that the Fed has lost the ability to normalize interest rates anytime in the near future, this one probably loses much of it’s ability to move the marketplace.  That said, we’ll look for a m/m increase of 0.2% both at the headline, and at the Core.  Due to the highly volatile nature of energy prices this year, the Core print is the correct one to look at.  On a year over year basis, this item came in at 1.6% in April.  For comparison’s sake, the Core CPI has already printed at 2.2% for May, it’s seventh consecutive month either at, or above the Fed’s stated target for inflation….. which is probably why the Fed doesn’t look at that one.
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10:00 ET
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Pending Home Sales (May):  Pending Home Sales really took off in April, to the tune of 5.1% m/m.  Existing Home Sales for May came in at an eight month high last week. (See how that works.)  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that Pending Home Sales are expected to roll right off the table today, and print in the neighborhood of -0.9% m/m.  That’s not all, the low end of the range is way down there at -2.4% m/m.  This obviously, if it comes to pass, does not bode well for Exiting Home Sales next month.
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10:30 ET
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Oil Inventories (Weekly):  WTI Crude was at least partly responsible for yesterday’s late push higher for equity prices.  We’ve seen five consecutive weekly drawdowns in supply for this space.  The professional expectation for this week is that inventories dropped by another -2.3 million barrels.  Last night, the API number showed at larger draw than anticipated at an estimated -3.9 million barrels.  That number, and the possibility of an oil workers strike later this week in Norway have put a bid under Crude this morning.
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Earnings
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AM: GIS (.60), MON (2.40)
PM: PIR (-.05)

Lunchtime Recon

Good Afternoon,

                       This morning has gifted us what looks like a minor relief rally right now… on much lighter trading volume than we’ve seen over the last few days.  There are some reasons both obvious, and not so obvious for some support in this area.  Dead cat bounce ??  No, I don’t believe in the term.  That’s the came thing as shrugging your shoulders and saying “I don’t know”.  There is always a reason.  Today’s headline rumor was some kind of coordinated central banking action.  Really though, with interest rates pinned to the floor, and the marketplace functioning quite well (extremely volatile, yes…but not broken), their hands are sort of tied.
                      The other supportive issues bouncing around out there are today’s northerly move for Crude prices, positive movement in British Pound, and the Euro exchange rates (Both now off of their highs), and the end of the quarter later this week.  You see, as of last week, bonds had already been out-performing equities, and now with the recent global move out of risk, and into safe-haven assets, that pension fund end of quarter/ end of month mandated re-balancing has been exacerbated to some degree.
                        All of that said….. this environment will remain tough for the foreseeable future.  There are simply so many unknowns.  On top of the various nations within the EU that may want to leave the EU, and the different parts of the UK that may want to leave the UK,…. there’s the US election cycle, and the ongoing questions regarding both monetary, and fiscal policies.  So, where is everything right now.  Let’s fill out the range card.
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1) The S&P 500 peaked at 2027, short of my level in that area of 2029, the 200 day SMA did not hold, and the index appears to be searching for support.  I believe that there is some down at 2006 that I hope we don’t go near.  That would make for a tough Tuesday afternoon.
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2) The US Dollar is weaker, but has been strengthening throughout the later part of the morning.  WTI Crude was in rally mode, but has gone from approaching $48 to defending $47.  Gold is a little soft, but not truly weakening all that much.  The VIX continues to sell off hard.
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3) Health Care, Energy, Tech, and Discretionary names lead the way.  The bounce in the Financial sector is far less robust than one might have hoped.  Utilities, obviously would be in the red at this point.
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4) Riskier assets turned as the morning progressed, and so has has the Treasury market.  The 30 year is now green on the day, and the 10, and 5 year maturities are approaching the unchanged mark.

Market Recon Tuesday

Good Morning,
                       Don’t look now, but the British Pound, and the Euro are both stronger this morning, and that’s a good thing.  We used to gripe about the S&P 500’s correlation to WTI Crude.  Now, it’s the Pound.  Currency valuations really are the engine that either drives, or impedes corporate earnings growth for many of the higher profile firms in our country.  Quite frankly, the lower DXY in 2016 was symbol of shining hope for some of these firms.  That’s why the thought of prolonged uncertainty in Europe is such a big deal.  It’s not just reduced demand, it’s reduced demand for US goods and services because they become unaffordable.  It’s also why the Fed’s expected path of normalization has been forever changed.
                      Speaking of the S&P 500, that was a truly impressive triple bottom that formed yesterday at 1991.  Not only did that level become suddenly important, the fight at that spot came on respectable volume in comparison to the candles around the skirmish all three times.  If you didn’t notice, the algos surely did.
                      Standard & Poors, and Fitch both cut their credit rating for the UK yesterday.  There was mention of probable reductions in GDP, and possibly less reliance upon the Pound by central banks as a reserve currency (In 2015, the GBP accounted for only 4.9% of total reserve currency holdings), which may all be true.  But, the credit rating ??  Really ??  With their own central bank, their own control over money supply, and interest rates ??  They’ll pay their bills, gang.  For this guy, the bond market gets the final say on this, and the bond market appears to have vetoed that decision.
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Macro
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08:30 ET
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GDP (Q1 – f):  At last, we’ll finally get our last look at Q1 GDP.  We expect to see a small upward revision from 0.8% to 1.0% q/q when measured in a seasonally adjusted, annualized format.  Paltry ?? yes, but actually better than we thought when our first look at this item came in at a mere 0.5%.  The final revision to Q4 2015 landed at 1.4%, so we’ve had some pretty tough sledding to get though in the US for a good half year.  Today’s number will actually represent the best first quarter for the US since 2013, and Q2 looks (ahhh, did look) a whole lot better.  the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecaster is currently tracking Q2 2016 at 2.6%.  Then again…. Brexit has thrown us a curveball.
08:55 ET
Redbook (Weekly):  You know what I always say about the Redbook data.  Keep the year over year print at growth of 0.5% or better, and this one flies under the radar.  Last week, the number came in at a slightly healthy 0.9% y/y.  Not that worried about this item.
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09:00 ET
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Case-Shiller HPI (April):  There are many regional sub-components within this data, and then there’s also the month over month numbers.  For our newcomers, when market pros refer to the Case-Shiller in general terms, they mean the 20 city, non-seasonally adjusted, year over year print.  This number has been mired in a pace of growth of between 5% and 6% ever since bottoming out in the mid 4%’s about a year ago.  The expectation is for more of the same today, with a range spanning from 5.3% to 5.8%.  I think a miss here could hurt the market more than a beat could help.  The last thing markets need right now is a sign of weakening domestic macro, even if it is slightly dated.
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10:00 ET
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Consumer Confidence (June):  This item has printed in decline for two months running, badly missing expectations in both months.  On top of that, the similar Consumer Sentiment (U of Michigan) missed consensus for June last Friday.  Therefore, it is with some hesitation that I report today’s expected bounce from 92.6 last month to something like 93.4.  Equity markets tend to react to consumer related surveys at the time of their release.  For that reason, if the Brexit romp seems sort of stabilized at 10am, you want to pay attention to this one.
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (June):  Richmond fell into contraction last month after what had been a very strong two month run.  All of the major components (new orders, backlog orders, shipments, and capacity utilization) that make up the core of manufacturing surveys took serious hits.  The hope for today is that this one sneaks into expansion.  It should be close, with consensus just at +2, after May’s -1 print.  NY, KC, and Philly all hit the tape with positive numbers this month, leaving only Dallas below the Mendoza line.
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Earnings
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AM: CCL (.38)
PM: NKE (.48)

Lunchtime Recon

Good Afternoon,

                       The kind of morning where the S&P 500 itself ignored technical buy signals .  The kind of morning where the “buy the dip” crowd runs out of margin, or worse yet… faces up to looming margin calls.  The kind of morning where the trader looks at his bond allocation, and says “That’s why I’ll never dump you”.  Same for Gold, which by the way, seems completely unfazed by US Dollar strength.  Let’s survey the landscape.
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1)  The S&P 500 has bounced off of 1991 twice now, finally forming a support level.
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2)  Small caps continue to under-perform, despite their perceived insulation from currency exchange rates.
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3) Aside from the already mentioned safe-haven behavior seen today from Gold & Treasuries, Utilities, and Tobaccos are performing well.  The VIX however is performing with the overall marketplace.  Perhaps, there is a bet on an afternoon rally out there.
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4) Financials continue to be the “Ugly Duckling”.  They are obviously the most heavily impacted part of this arena, and we will likely see more of that as volatility becomes the “new normal”.
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5) I have a feeling that vacations may be scarce this Summer.  Just sayin’.  Good thing we love this stuff.

Market Recon Monday

Good Morning,
                       You woke up on this side of the dirt today…. again.  Still undefeated.  The rest will fall into place, if not today, then another day.  Let’s go after today.  Every day, you must rise with the fighting spirit of someone with a mission, someone who can take a shot in the teeth and get up.  Every single time.  Who, or what can stop someone like that ??  All of you can do this.  Stay mentally sharp, stay hungry.  Discipline.  Oh, and help to kid to your left, and to your right if they need it.  Let’s go.
                      Is this the beginning of the end for the EU?  Probably not, but you’ll get no straight answer.  That’s the problem, and that’s why this particular ball of wax will be with us for some time.  Oh, markets will stabilize…. at some point.  That said, the volatility will abate, and then return, and then repeat.  Over, and over again.  This is a political event, and your portfolio, on Friday was simply collateral damage.  That right there is why you need to know what you are trying to accomplish.  We keep going back to the part where there’s no straight answer.  The Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Italy, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are just  some of the early question marks.  Adapt.
                      So far today, Asian stocks are well mixed, with the Nikkei leading the way higher.  There is once again, speculation that the BOJ will soon act against a strengthening yen.  European equity markets are all off another 2% to 3% in addition to Friday’s losses.  The Euro, and the Pound continue to soften, as the DXY rises above 96.  Gold remains a safe haven of choice, while WTI Crude remains within the 47-48 range that it has traded in all night long.  Bond yields ??  Sovereign debt bond yields to be specific.  There is some more serious compression in this space.  US ten year yielding just 1.47%, while the UK version drops well below 1%, and for Germany the negative number continues to increase.  S&P futures ??  Just don’t forget that with fair value, the downside looks about 11 points worse than what you see on your TV this morning.  Good luck, gang.
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Macro
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08:30 ET
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Goods Trade Balance (April): This one is a revision to the April numbers that we saw in this space about a month ago.  For the first look at April, the headline print came in at the strong end of the range ($-57.5B) on surprisingly large increases for both exports, and imports.  We expect today’s adjustment to add a couple of billion dollars to the deficit.  The marketplace would not normally react in a huge way to this item, and with all of the international news out there right now, you may not even notice this one go by.
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09:45 ET
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Markit Services PMI Flash (June):  Markit’s Service sector number hit the tape at an expansionary, yet unspectacular 51.3 for May’s final release.  There is some expectation that we’ll see an improvement to something like 52 today.  The market will likely rake a pass on this one, unless you see a number below 50, which could be seen by participants as weakness in a place that we really are yet to see it.  That we do not need right now.
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10:30 ET
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June):  Regional Fed district manufacturing data is actually a source of strength for the US economy so far this June.  New York, Philadelphia, and Kansas City, though certainly with areas of visible weakness inside the numbers, have all printed in expansion.  The streak will end today, as Dallas is just facing too much of a headwind to even think about approaching zero.  We are coming off of a -20.8 release here, and probably facing something like -16 today.  A lousy number here can not hurt you today.  Something less “evil” than …let’s say -10, could be well taken.  Of course, that’s only if we’ve seen some market stabilization by 10:30.  Wouldn’t bet the farm on that.

Market Recon Friday

Good Morning,

                     There’s blood on the saddle.  The good news is that things were much worse overnight than they are now.  Stress Tests ??  Yeah, right.  Brexit.  That’ll leave a mark. Who’s next…. Italeave, Czech out, Finnish, Departugal, or maybe Oustria.  Time will tell, and rumors along these lines will move asset prices.
                     The Financial sector will be the hardest hit today, as drastically changed currency exchange rates, and compressed bond yields are taking their toll.  By the way, your penny no longer buys one yen.  Central bank intervention ?? We’ve already seen it from the SNB.  Don’t be surprised to see it as well from the BOJ.  The DXY is back below 96, which is what we want to see. Anyway, now you understand why I practically begged the Fed to normalize three years ago when they probably could have pulled it off.  Hope is not a very good policy.
                    Adding to our mix today, will be the Russell Re-balance, which standing alone without a global financial markets crisis, would cause today to be the busiest day of the year at the NYSE in terms of trading volume.  Now, with that volume, you’ll have extreme volatility.
                    What can you, the trader do ??  Well, if you did buy those July FBP 140 puts that we talked about yesterday, then you’ve already played some pretty nice defense.  Maybe buying some long dated calls for the same underlying ETF isn’t such a bad idea today.  Just don’t pay more for the premium that what you lock in on the put side.
                   Question.  Why is the Prime Minister of the UK hanging around til October ??  Thanks for your service, now get out of the way… and let the next guy or gal invoke article 50 as soon as possible.  Who needs the increased uncertainty ??  There is already too much of that.
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Macro (if you’re still interested)
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08:30 ET
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Durable Goods Orders (May):  The headline print for April showed a robust month over month increase of 3.4%, That was the second month of positive growth in a row, also the third month in four.  This was, however largely due to defense, and aircraft purchases.  When measured ex-transportation, the m/m growth came in at a mere 0.4%.  For today, consensus headline growth is expected to print close to -0.6%, but to be honest… there is no consensus.  The range that I’ve seen spans from -2.5% to +5.0%, which means quite simply that there is no real expectation.  This one can at times be a headline event, just not today.
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10:00 ET
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U of M Consumer Sentiment (June-final):  Two weeks ago, the preliminary June number came in at 94.3 for this data-point.  Projections are for a minor slide to maybe… 94.1.  If that’s what happens, the print will, in my opinion, be close enough to fly under the radar.  However, if this prints with a 93 handle, a perceived less confident consumer could rattle the marketplace on a different day.
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13:00 ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count (weekly):  We’ve seen a couple of weeks in a row now of increases in not only Rig Count growth, but in Rigs devoted to the production of Crude.  One week ago, such rigs “popped” from 328 to 337.  With WTI Crude hanging around in the high $40’s all week after bouncing off of $45 support, I don’t think that we’ll see a dramatic change in this number.  If the number were to print up another five to ten rigs, there could be some further damage in the commodity on top the damage already done by the stronger dollar.

MARKET RECON – BREXIT called

Good Evening / Morning,
This is ugly.
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– BBC & Sky News both call British referendum in favor of the Bexit.
– GBPUSD trading below 1.35
– Nikkei down 7%, as Yen valued at more than a US penny
– S&P Futures down 102 points, DJIA futures close to 700 pts lower.
– Gold up $80 to $1335, WTI Crude trading at $47
– Yields collapsing.
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– I will be on FBN AM at 4am with Nicole Petallides & Lauren Simonetti to try to break this down for you.