Market Recon Monday

Good Morning,
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Dollar Valuations / Yields
                        The US dollar is somewhat softer this morning. To keep things in perspective, the DXY is still hovering above 101, and the WSJ Dollar Index is still close to 91.5. At the same time … US Treasuries, Gold & Oil have all found bids in the zero dark hours of Monday morning. If the hopes and dreams of lower (Personal & Corporate) taxes, increased spending, rapid growth, and inflation that Donald Trump’s election has unleashed on the hearts and minds of the investing public actually do come to some sort of realization, it becomes likely that some of the shifts in investor behavior that we have seen will continue, although in slower motion.. in their general directions. That does mean that the Fed’s one quarter point a year tightening cycle does pick up the pace in 2017. Markets, we are told (by everyone) have come too far, too soon. Market prices are the result of demand and supply at a given moment in time. They are never “too far” in that moment. When you and the tape disagree… guess who’s right?  As for “too soon”, that is quite possible. The bond market is ahead of the Fed for now.  Bear in mind, that while tightening does force yields higher, and thus… dollar valuations higher that (drum poll, please) higher yields, and higher dollar valuations will also inevitably attract foreign investment, (which has been lagging of late), slowing said retreat.
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Sector Movement
                        The President-elect is two months away from taking office, and will not have a magic wand at his disposal on January 20th. Financials, Small Caps, and Industrials will all likely have to digest their recent moves. Sector related charts in these arenas will become stretched. and eventually start to make better sense to the trained eye. The Energy sector will move on rumor for another ten days or so, and then react sharply in response to the results of the OPEC meeting next Wednesday. I would think the greater risk in this space to be to the down side, particularly if WTI moves higher ahead of the meeting on rumor. There is the double edged risk here of a “sell the news” event, regardless of the actual news. Discretionary names, particularly well known retail names will also will likely be in play heading into Black Friday, and carrying through Cyber Monday. This is something that I would think you would want to play though the options markets, and leave your capital either on the bench, or better deployed elsewhere.
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Numbers
                        For a holiday week, we are not without a decent amount of market impacting type macro-economic data-points. There’s nothing on the docket today; then there’s only really October Existing Home Sales tomorrow. On Wednesday, when you’re thinking about American football, and how you will possibly sit across the table from that worthless puke of a relative that voted differently than you .. we’ll see Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Oil Inventories, and the FOMC Minutes, so you’ll probably have to focus on something other than your dear cousin. Btw, Durable Goods are expected to show improvement, and will impact Q4 GDP expectations, which are already on the rise (Currently running at 3.6% according to the Atlanta Fed) thanks to last Thursday’s print for Housing Starts.
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Economics
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08:00 – Fed Speaker: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will speak this morning from New York City.  Fischer, a permanent voting member of the committee, spoke last week on enduring market liquidity…. veering away from policy talk. The Vice Chair is expected to “go there” today, covering monetary policy, inflation, and growth.
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S&P Cash Levels
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             You’ll notice that these levels have not changed for a few days. I don’t change things until they stop working. That said, the 2187, and 2180 levels have been absolutely spectacular for the better part of a week now. For futures traders, fair value is currently -1.35.
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2205, 2193, 2187, 2180, 2172, 2165
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Monday’s Earnings Highlights
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Before the Open: TSN (1.16)
After the Close: SINA (.36), WB (.20)