Market Recon Monday

Good Morning,
.
Asia.
                     While European markets, and US equity index futures apparently keep on pace with last week in the early going, there were a bevy of high level Asian macro-economic data-points released last night for Far Eastern markets to deal with.  First, the Japanese economy grew at an annualized 2.2% in Q3 vs. expectations of 0.8%. Much like US Q3 GDP. this report was welcome, but heavy on exports, as external demand far outweighed the domestic. The Nikkei 225 gained 1.7% in response. Chinese markets displayed a mixed reaction to October data that showed a slowing in the pace of expansion for both Retail Sales, and Industrial Production. On top of that, other data showed that fiscal spending in China, particularly on the local level dropped sharply for the month.
.
This Week.
                      Right now, I am tracking at least twelve public speaking engagements featuring Fed officials this week, including three set for today alone. Usually Fed speakers, depending on how radical they intend to be, can move the marketplace. I’m not so sure how true that is this week. With Treasury markets, and the obvious rotation among stock sectors taking place, it’s plain to see that markets expect growth, expect inflation, and expect to see rising interest rates going forward. Sounding hawkish is not going to do anything except cement current opinion. The macro won’t get juicy until tomorrow, when we see October Retail Sales, and get our first read on November manufacturing.
.
Trader Focus…  Treasuries & Gold.
                       How far can Treasury yields, and Gold go? The market response to the expected fiscal spending plans of a Donald Trump presidency coupled with a Republican legislature may have lit a fire under some sectors as others have softened, but the astounding pressure on both Treasuries and Gold is a very difficult thing to play for investors. Gold has already seen support where it should exist this morning. That by no means is an endorsement at these levels. If these levels just above $1200 do indeed crack, I would think about becoming more cautious than aggressive, and consider holding off until se see considerably lower prices (or upside momentum) prior to re-entry. Perhaps waiting until $1100 ish, or $1305. At either of those points, one (in my opinion) could think about taking a 5% allocation back up to 7.5%. Either would represent to me a purchase point. As for government debt, the environment is rather dangerous, and could remain so for the foreseeable future. A reduction in exposure in this space directed toward cash or something liquid could set trigger for the gold trade when the target is reached. In the mean-time, sector-driven momentum is the game.
.
Macro
.
12:30 – Fed Speaker: Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan will speak from Wichita Falls, Texas. Kaplan will not vote in December, but will in 2017. He has spoken recently in favor of a rate increase this year, and for increased fiscal stimulus. There will be a Q& A session after the speech.
.
16:30 – Fed Speaker: Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker is set to speak on fiscal health, and also on the national debt from Chestertown, Maryland. Lacker has been outspoken on the possible need for increased tightening of policy in the face of a Fiscal stimulus package. Richmond will not vote again until 2018.
.
18:30 – Fed Speaker: San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams speaks tonight from San Francisco. Though San Francisco will not vote again until 2018, Williams is considered quite influential. He will take questions from the audience.
.
Monday’s Earnings Highlights
.
After the Close: AAP (1.71)