Market Recon Monday

Good Morning,

September Jobs/Policy.

For those trying to gauge future monetary policy decisions, the Jobs data that was released by the BLS was largely unhelpful. The headline number for job creation was slightly below consensus. Wage growth landed right on expectations when a beat would have been nice given August’s weakness. The most disappointing part of the report though, was the net loss in full-time employment. That’s right. Less people in the United States worked full-time in September than in August, but more people still worked full-time in September than in July. So, the trend is still higher, but the momentum is broken.  Bottom line is really that though the September Employment picture was less than impressive, it does not convince anyone at the FOMC to change their narrative. You still have a group leaning hawkish that most likely can not act at the next meeting. That means that we’ll need a couple of good months in a row, from a macro-economic perspective.

This Week.

That leads us to the week ahead. The macro will be rather light this week, until we see September Retail Sales this Friday. Those Retail Sales have been awful over a couple of months, and are expected to have bounced back in this release. Policy hawks will feel much better seeing a good number here, and in next Monday’s industrial Production print. Friday will evolve as the week’s high impact day as there is not only the just mentioned item, but Janet Yellen will speak from Boston, and “Earnings Season” will kick into second gear with several “high profile” financial firms reporting. Those numbers will be closely looked at as yields and currency exchange rates have been extremely choppy, and the financials have been among the market’s leaders for about a quarter.


Crude prices have been an equity market support of late, and have helped give some life to the sectors that it directly impacts. Most eyes have turned toward the formal OPEC meeting coming in late November. Before we get there however, there are this week’s World Energy Congress meetings . Through Thursday, OPEC producers will have a chance to convince Russia to play ball with their coming plan to cut/freeze production. Before even heading for Istanbul, the Russian Energy Minister had indicated that he was not interested in signing anything at this ‘get together”. That is the primary reason that you’ll see WTI prices in red early this morning. This commodity, and it’s subsequently reliant sectors will be subject to the rumor mill all week long.


22:00 – Fed Speaker: Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans will speak tonight from Syndy, Australia. Well known as a dove, Evans made clear that week the he’s “fine” with a rate hike this year. Evans does not vote until January.


One thought on “Market Recon Monday”

  1. The main problem with the Jobs Report was in the recorded Non-seasonally Adjusted CPS data. 1.1M FT jobs were lost (most likely true Summer, seasonal jobs) and were replaced by 1.3M PT jobs.

    We are up fewer than 5M total jobs since July 2007. (NSA CPS)

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