Market Recon Monday

Good Morning,
Weaker US Dollar.
.
               You’ll notice this morning, a weaker US dollar. Then you’ll notice firmer market prices for Gold, Crude, and Equity Index futures. With last week’s continuance of the recent run of rather weak US macro, the chances of a rate hike announcement by the FOMC this Wednesday are perceived by most economists to have diminished somewhat. Thus, at least for the moment, the dollar weakens. Chances are that if the Fed is to take a pass until after the election, the Bank of Japan policy meeting, which is still something of a wildcard will impact exchange rates more so than the US central bank.
.
Oil Volatility. 
.
               The volatility in Oil this morning is in response to some mixed signals that traders are seeing on top of those currency fluctuations. Over the weekend, Mohammed Barkindo (Sec. Gen. of OPEC) tried to scale back expectations of any agreement on a production freeze being put together at the informal meeting being held next week in Algiers. After that, we see the President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro declaring that he had a long meeting with the leaders of Iran, and that a deal between OPEC & non-OPEC producers is very close. Who to believe? Right now, markets are going with the last thing they’ve heard.
.
Trader Focus.
.
               While the macro is very light this week, and earnings, are for the most part, in between seasons, the moves in Oil (and subsequently the impact in the Energy sector, and Transportation space) will likely be where traders go early on Monday. What traders also want to cognizant of today, are Bayer AG’s analyst meeting. It’s no secret that MON’s stock price has not behaved correctly if one believes that this deal will get through apparent regulatory hurdles. I would think that some kind of strategy regarding completion of this deal might come out of the meeting. It is also expected that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will speak at the UN on his economic growth plan. While it is doubtful that he will comment on monetary policy days ahead of that BOJ meeting, it is not at all unlikely that Abe will detail the progress made on the fiscal side.
.
Macro
.
10:00 – NAHB Housing Market Index (September): Expecting 60, August 60. This item is also referred to as the Homebuilder Optimism Index. Simply put, this is a survey of roughly 900 homebuilders from around the country, and they are asked to rate the current environment as well as their future expectations. After a very strong second half of 2015, this item has ranged for most of this year between 58 and 60. Regardless, there will be little market reaction to this item, especially with August Housing Starts just one day away.