Market Recon Thursday

Good Morning,
                    Although today is an ECB policy meeting day, surprisingly the central banking headline of the day has come from the BOJ.  I’m sure you noticed earlier today that the Japanese Yen bottomed out around 107, and a half per the US Dollar, and has strengthened rapidly over the last couple of hours.  The last price I see as I bang out this note is closer to 105 and a half.  So what gives?  BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, in an interview on BBC Radio, indicated that there are no limitations to BOJ monetary stimulus if need be… like every central banker has said in every speech everywhere.  What moved the currency markets was his downplaying of the kind of stimulus that has at least had something of a hand in floating global equity markets.
                   He said that there” is no need, and no possibility for helicopter money”.  No word yet if that scream you heard in the middle of the night was the former Fed Chair’s cry of anguish.  The Governor also indicated that about all that they could do would be to expand existing policy.  It is interesting to note that since this interview, the Nikkei 225 is off of the day’s highs, but is still up on the day, and is in fact your global equity index leader at this time.  Perhaps there is still a large fiscal/monetary package on the way.  Maybe they simply still intend to keep score.  In chalk.  For now.
                  The ECB decision on the Minimum Bid Rate (which will be left unchanged) will be announced at 07:45 ET.  As always, the Mario Draghi press conference at 08:30 ET will be the big ticket item.  Draghi will stress that not enough time has passed since the June 23rd UK Brexit vote to make a policy judgement, and will set up September as the time to make that assessment.  September…. sounds familiar.
                  We, here in the states…actually have quite a full day of both earnings releases, and macro ahead of us.  The busiest day of the week for sure.  June Existing Home Sales, and the July Philly Fed both present market moving ability, while the corporate numbers will come from all corners without a sector, nor an industrial theme.  We have not heard from any of our central bankers all week, and you will not until after next Wednesday’s policy announcement.
                  For all of you Comic-Con weirdos out there, I’ve got a treat for you.  Google this….  “Edrio Two Tubes”.  You’re welcome.
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Macro
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08:30 ET
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Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly): Expected 267K, Prior 254K.  Those filing for Unemployment benefits will fortunately not amount to very high numbers today.  Though, we expect to see an increase in this space today, this item will remain at historically low levels, and probably just nudge the four week moving average up from the 259k where it now stands.
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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July): Expected 5.0, Prior 4.7. Philly was one of three Federal Reserve regional district manufacturing indices that printed in a state of expansion in June, along with NY, and KC.  For July, we’ve already seen the Empire State repeat that trick, though just barely (0.6).  New & Unfilled Orders were a problem in that report, with delivery time being a strength.  The market will likely react to the Philly Fed as it is the country’s most focused upon regional manufacturing data-point.
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09:00 ET
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FHFA HPI (May): Expected 0.4% m/m, Prior 0.2% m/m.  Analysts may compare this narrowly focused home price index to Case-Shiller, but …. Case-Shiller is the only one that traders will notice.  That item will print next Tuesday.  Market participants won’t have to worry about this item.
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10:00 ET
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Existing Home Sales (June): Expected 5.48M SAAR, Prior 5.53M SAAR.  This data-point brings with it, a touch of danger today.  June, for the most part.. has been a stronger than usual month for the US economy, and though there’s really nothing wrong with a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.48 million units, this would still be a minus tick.  With equity markets sitting on top of a mountain right now, a major item that prints in weak fashion could be the pin prick…. if anything can be right now.
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CB Leading Indicators (June): Expected 0.2% m/m, Prior -0.2% m/m.  Another non-event.  This is a composite index of ten other higher profile domestic macro-economic data-points.  You’ve already reacted to those.  Nobody you know will react to this one.
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10:30 ET
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Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly): Expected 44B cf, Prior 64B cf. Incredibly, this number is headed for a fourteenth consecutive inventory build in the space.  That came just a couple of weeks after a sixteen week stretch of consecutive weekly drawdowns had ended.  In my experience, I had found Nat Gas futures to be one of the toughest items to trade in the financial universe.  Good luck if that’s you today.  That said, this will not impact the equity markets in a big way upon release.
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Thursday’s Earnings Highlights
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Before the Open: BX (.41), DPZ (.94), GM (1.48), MAN (1.52), DGX (1.31), SHW (4.16), LUV (1.21), TRV (2.08), UNP (1.16)
After the Close: T(.72), SAM (1.95), COF (1.87), CMG (.93), PYPL (.36), SBUX (.49), V (.67)