Lunchtime Recon

Good Afternoon,

                       All…. righty then.  The Jobs number has come and gone, and quite frankly we’ve been hit with a few surprises.  The headline Non-Farm Payrolls print, as you well know by now… absolutely blew away expectations.  After what proved to be a pitiful May, the trend is back on’t sub par pace that has the nations averaging around 147K a month.  Participation increased, which unfortunately put downward pressure on wages, and forced a sizable increase in the Underemployment Rate once the seasonal adjustment is removed.
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Let’s survey the environment.
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1) Equities have been relentless this morning, ignoring several technical sell signals at key levels.  The Leaders ??  How about the Banks, or anything to do with Consumer Finance.  Higher yields in our future?  Treasuries aren’t acting that way, with the exception of the 30 year, which has been volatile all morning.
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2) Other strong spots include the Discretionary names, Industrials, Transports, and Tech.  Obviously this is a tough day for the Utility sector.
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3) The US Dollar has stayed mysteriously flat today in the face of macro that would support a move to the upside.  The is street chatter that the long dollar trade was a bit crowded, and there was a bottleneck of profit taking.
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4) Gold is off of it’s recent highs, but you really must say that the yellow stuff is hanging in there remarkably well on a day where some folks must have some nice profits on the table.
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5) Next week…. Earnings Season begins, I am tracking at least 13 Fed speeches at this time…. oh, and the CPI is due on Friday.  That should be interesting.
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6) This is my last Recon note that will be sent from this firm, or this e-mail account.  I start with a new firm on Monday, and intend to continue publishing.  If you read these notes as an e-mail subscriber, you can look for a new address, or go directly to sarge986.com

2 thoughts on “Lunchtime Recon”

  1. All the very best wishes for you new job Sarge and thank you for your wisdom and humanity. Paul Williams, Paignton, England

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