Market Recon Monday

Good Morning,
                       You woke up on this side of the dirt today…. again.  Still undefeated.  The rest will fall into place, if not today, then another day.  Let’s go after today.  Every day, you must rise with the fighting spirit of someone with a mission, someone who can take a shot in the teeth and get up.  Every single time.  Who, or what can stop someone like that ??  All of you can do this.  Stay mentally sharp, stay hungry.  Discipline.  Oh, and help to kid to your left, and to your right if they need it.  Let’s go.
                      Is this the beginning of the end for the EU?  Probably not, but you’ll get no straight answer.  That’s the problem, and that’s why this particular ball of wax will be with us for some time.  Oh, markets will stabilize…. at some point.  That said, the volatility will abate, and then return, and then repeat.  Over, and over again.  This is a political event, and your portfolio, on Friday was simply collateral damage.  That right there is why you need to know what you are trying to accomplish.  We keep going back to the part where there’s no straight answer.  The Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Italy, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are just  some of the early question marks.  Adapt.
                      So far today, Asian stocks are well mixed, with the Nikkei leading the way higher.  There is once again, speculation that the BOJ will soon act against a strengthening yen.  European equity markets are all off another 2% to 3% in addition to Friday’s losses.  The Euro, and the Pound continue to soften, as the DXY rises above 96.  Gold remains a safe haven of choice, while WTI Crude remains within the 47-48 range that it has traded in all night long.  Bond yields ??  Sovereign debt bond yields to be specific.  There is some more serious compression in this space.  US ten year yielding just 1.47%, while the UK version drops well below 1%, and for Germany the negative number continues to increase.  S&P futures ??  Just don’t forget that with fair value, the downside looks about 11 points worse than what you see on your TV this morning.  Good luck, gang.
.
Macro
.
08:30 ET
.
Goods Trade Balance (April): This one is a revision to the April numbers that we saw in this space about a month ago.  For the first look at April, the headline print came in at the strong end of the range ($-57.5B) on surprisingly large increases for both exports, and imports.  We expect today’s adjustment to add a couple of billion dollars to the deficit.  The marketplace would not normally react in a huge way to this item, and with all of the international news out there right now, you may not even notice this one go by.
.
09:45 ET
.
Markit Services PMI Flash (June):  Markit’s Service sector number hit the tape at an expansionary, yet unspectacular 51.3 for May’s final release.  There is some expectation that we’ll see an improvement to something like 52 today.  The market will likely rake a pass on this one, unless you see a number below 50, which could be seen by participants as weakness in a place that we really are yet to see it.  That we do not need right now.
.
10:30 ET
.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June):  Regional Fed district manufacturing data is actually a source of strength for the US economy so far this June.  New York, Philadelphia, and Kansas City, though certainly with areas of visible weakness inside the numbers, have all printed in expansion.  The streak will end today, as Dallas is just facing too much of a headwind to even think about approaching zero.  We are coming off of a -20.8 release here, and probably facing something like -16 today.  A lousy number here can not hurt you today.  Something less “evil” than …let’s say -10, could be well taken.  Of course, that’s only if we’ve seen some market stabilization by 10:30.  Wouldn’t bet the farm on that.