Global equities, with the exception of the Sensex (India) appear to be at least somewhat higher this morning, as do US equity index futures. Crude has stabilized about $48. Technically speaking, you could see the bump in the road at $SPX 2041 even before we got there last night. As the final seconds ticked off, and the index approached that line, myself, and several other very sentient fellows who work near my spot on the NYSE trading floor had a series of very brief conversations.
“Will we open higher tomorrow ??”
“I think so”.
“You sure ??”
“No. I really wanna see the SPX take and hold 2041….. Then I’ll feel better.”
“2035 really didn’t show”
“You’ve got my order ??” “Yes.”
“I’m gonna get done, right ??”
“Anything comin’ out in China tonight ?”
“What did Arthur say ??
“It’s to buy”
Well, kids… the index hit that wall twice. It failed to take and hold the spot, but it closed right on the doorstep. Photo finish. Just after the bell…..
“You feel good about this ??”
“I think so.”
“We’ve been wrong a couple of times before on this”
” …. good thing it’s only money.”
“I don’t think we’re wrong”
“That’s what I told my guy”
All of these quotes are something I either said, or heard within seconds of the final bell. Greatest place on Earth at 4pm on a weekday. Wonderful people to work with. The Yankees have their stadium, and we have ours.
Fed Speaker: Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo will speak about Insurance Company regulation in Washington, DC. Tarullo is a voting member of the FOMC, but his expertise, and most of his public speaking is regulation based. He is excellent at staying beneath the radar, and I would not expect him to stray too far from his prepared material. As a trader, I would consider this a low risk event.
Existing Home Sales (April): This item bounced fairly significantly from February to March (5.1% m/m), and the consensus view is for continued momentum in this space. Everyone I look at seems to be expecting something close to 5.4 million units (SAAR), up from the previous print of 5.33M. In fact, the low end of the range for this one is 5.35M, except for one guy, who’s down at 5.3M. Wonder what he sees that nobody else does. As far as April housing data goes, we did see a nice number for Housing Starts. Both New, and Pending Home Sales are due next week.
Baker Hughes Rig Count (Weekly): The US Rig Count has been in steady decline for quite some time now, operating at maybe 25% od where it once was. You probably won’t see it this week, but I wonder with WTI Crude trading around the $48 level, how long it will take for this trend to change. My bet is…. not too long at all. Then again, it’s not like I’ve amassed a fortune predicting the fundamentals of oil pricing. We’re coming off of a US Count of 406, of which 318 were devoted to the production of oil.
Friday’s Earnings Highlights
Before the Open: BKE (.57), CPB (.64), DE (1.48), FL (1.39)
After the Close: This guy is on vacation. Could get stupid.
Note: Market Recon will not publish next week as your old pal will be studying old forts, and battlefields..