Market Recon Wednesday

Good Morning,
                        Well, unless you live under a rock, you already know that AAPL disappointed.  They missed EPS expectations… they missed revenue projections…. they guided lower going forward.  They did announce a dividend boost, and an increase in their buyback authorization.  Didn’t help, or maybe it did.  The stock was still down more than 7% overnight.  The good news here is that AAPL does not impact market sentiment like it used to.  Sure the NASDAQ Composite, and the DJIA will underperform the marketplace this morning, but as I type out this note, S&P futures are trading just two points below fair value.  On the morning after this, and a number of trendy, volatile eateries also hosted a visit from the ugly stick, I’d call that a win.
                      Global equities are swimming sideways this morning as we await these central banking shindigs.  The BOJ even more important than the Fed, at least for now.  Not only is Crude trading well above that $44 resistance mark, it even spiked above $45 at one point.  That’s your guide… at least until this afternoon.
.
How Can You Have Any Pudding  (FOMC Policy Decision)

.
               Just what will the FOMC try to push forth at 14:00 this afternoon ??  I think we all feel that it’s safe to say that there will be no change in policy at this time.  They will, however leave all options open for June.  In fact, if indeed, they have marching orders for June, they will subtly try to increase market expectations of such an event.  You will once again hear the words “data dependent”.  The data stressed will likely be the low headline Unemployment Rate, and the imaginary advance towards the condition known as “Full Employment”.  …..and if there are marching orders, it will not matter that sizable portions of the labor force are working 23 hours a week for 9 buck an hour, without employer sponsored benefits.  No, that would make for lousy press.  The Phillips Curve ??  Oh, it still works when people work full-time, and make a living wage.  What we have is not that, or not “Full Employment”.
               OK, I got off on a tangent.  Central banking does that to me.  You will also hear about global threats to our happy little economy, and deflationary pressures as a way out, if in fact they feel they may be unable to move in June.  In fact, how strong they portray China’s economy may be what actually shapes the perception after the fact, of whether this was a dovish, or a hawkish meeting.  With the recently weakening macro, that many seem to pretend is not there, I will agree with the Fed on one thing.  April is too early to predict June, heck…sometimes Wednesday is too early to predict Thursday.  What will most interesting to me, will be to see who amongst them will dissent.  You know how I love when non-dissenters think that they’re entitled to a contrary opinion after the fact.
             Oh, and one last thing…. let’s hope Peter Tchir of Brean Capital is right, and they just drop those silly dot plots.  Imagine that at one time, that was considered a policy tool.  Bad enough that they ran with it.  Worse that they stuck to it.
.
If You Don’t Eat Your Meat 
.
08:30 ET
Goods Trade Balance (March): The Bureau of Economic Analysis only started releasing this item in mid-2015.  Goods make up at three quarters of actual Trade Balance, that we’ll see one week from today.  The idea is to be more accurately able to estimate imports, exports, and GDP.  You equity guys probably don’t need to stay on top of this one, but the currency guys will be paying attention.  Expectations today are for $-62.5B, which is in line for this release.
.
10:00 ET
.
Pending Home Sales (March):  Probably one of the least closely followed housing numbers, but Pending Home Sales do turn into Existing Home Sales, and those certainly do matter.  March Housing numbers have been choppy, and this data-point is always a bit choppy.  Today we are looking for a dramatic slackening of the pace.  Most economists are around 0.4% m/m on this one today, off from the 3.5% m/m February print.
.
10:30 ET
.
Oil Inventories (Weekly):  Last week, this one printed at a 2.1 million barrel inventory build, just below the consensus expectations of those guys whom I always mock for being so inaccurate, so I guess I owe them an apology.  This week, that same cast of characters is looking for a build of 1.4M barrels.  Last night, the API number showed a draw of 1.1 million barrels upon it’s release.  There’s your reason or Crude’s pop in the early going.
.
Wednesday’s Earnings Highlights
.
Before the Open: BHI (-.33), BA (1.84), GD (2.16), GT (.71), HES (-1.81), IP (.69), MDLZ (.40), SO (.53)
After the Close: FB (.62), MAR (.84), ORLY (2.48)
.
Note: Pray for someone you barely know today, then pray for someone you don’t like.  In fact, do it right now, before you forget.