Market Recon Thursday

Good Morning,
                        You could almost hear Gomer Pyle this morning.  Surprise, surprise, surprise.  Golly, you mean the BOJ did not ease already easy monetary policy ??  Oh, this is almost too good.  I mean, I was lined up for some accommodation.  I’ll be worth a little less after the opening bell than I was at the close,  but this is one of the things I adore about this sport.  There are no sure things.  Oh, the rumor mill was running hot on Wall Street yesterday.  The BOJ was going to jump the shark.  Not only were they going to keep buying bonds, ETFs, pencils, hammers, and old VHS tapes, but they were going to invent stuff to buy.  Not so, Batman.  You know kids, the G-7 meets in Japan in May.  The Japanese economic condition, as we know….  is in something of a death spiral.  Maybe Dr. Kuroda just didn’t want the discomfort of hosting this meeting while having overtly fired the most recent shot in a global currency war.  Hmmmmm.
                         You’ve all read yesterday afternoon’s FOMC statement by now.  If you haven’t, that called doing less than the minimum.  Get on it.  Three things stand out.  One…clearly, they are trying to leave the possibility of a June hike open, as it may be the last chance before the general election.  Two, again clearly…they mention the weakening macro (I thought they might not, so credit given).  That was their hedge, in case forces align to prevent taking action at that time.  Three…. Esther George dissented.  Again, she stands alone when it’s time to choose a side.  Anyone else who casts a vote this year, and comes out in disagreement with this decision over the next ten days or so, is hereby declared full of it.  Such an individual would be openly declaring him or herself to either be a coward, an idiot, or a liar…… or maybe just a tool to be used by forces greater than themselves.
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Sports
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                       The Chicago Cubs were rained out on Wednesday.  Guess that means that Jake Arrieta will pitch today.  I don’t know about you, but I love baseball.  Most numbers nerd types do.  Not counting drug infused cheaters, this guy is the best since Pedro, maybe since “Old Hoss” Radbourn (There was nobody better in 1884.  As a Mets fan, I’ve watched Seaver, and Gooden as close as anyone.  This guy is the only guy other than Nolan Ryan that even a fan, not of his team, will pay attention until he at least gives up a hit.
                        The NFL draft is tonight.  I’m not the avid fan that most of you are, but I get that indeed you are.  That side-bar brings me to BWLD (no position at this time), a stock that I watch closely, and was mentioned last night on Cramer’s “Mad Money”.  Apparently after what was a lackluster basketball season for them, they are going to try to focus on soccer to bring in the twenty-somethings.  At first, myself, a man in his fifties thinks…Not in this country.  On second thought, a man in his fifties has children in that age group.  After some informal polling, it’s undeniable…  This sound like a great idea.
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Macro
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08:30 ET
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GDP (Q1p): We already know that the first quarter was ugly.  Consensus for this print today was for 0.6% q/q when seasonally adjusted, and then annualized.  The range of opinion for this one ranged from 0.1% to 1.1%.  That was before the Goods Trade Balance came in a touch tighter than expected for March yesterday.  There were a couple of upward adjustments made by economists after that print, with at least one guy going as high as 1.4%.  The likelihood is that we’ll see something between the original consensus view, and 1.0%.
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Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly): Talk about an incredibly shrinking data-point !!… Which in this case, is a positive.  Last week, the reported number was a mere 247K individuals being forced to file for Unemployment benefits.  That print, incredibly, was the 59th consecutive sub-300K number that we’ve seen in this pace.  For today, we’ll look for something of a bounce to a still very good 259K.  Nobody is above 265K on this one.  It’s been so consistent, that it’s lost it’s ability to impact the marketplace upon release.
10:30 ET
Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly): Here’s another one that’s become extremely regular, although that’s a far more recent development in this case.  I remember when leaving a bid or offer for even one contract exposed to the market at the time of this print was really playing with fire.  Within seconds you were either out, or dollar cost averaging.  We have seen a change in supply of 25B cubic feet or less for six consecutive weeks.  There are a couple of guys well above that on the build side today.  We shall see.
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11:00 ET
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Kansas City Manufacturing Index  (April):  How many of you old market guys remember the Kansas City Meat Exchange on Beaver Street next to Rosario’s ??  I know I just lit up a couple of brain cells out there.  Kansas City is one of our lower profile manufacturing numbers, and like the rest have been on the wrong side of zero for quite a while.  March came in at -6, after February printed at -12, so the ball is rolling, and we have seen some encouraging things happening in New York, and Richmond of late.  This will not move the market, but it is a piece of a very interesting puzzle for the macro-nerd inside.
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Thursday’s Earnings Highlights
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Before the Open: AET (2.23), APD (1.81), MO (.68), BMY (.65), CAH (1.33), COP (-1.01), DPZ (.98), F (.46), MA (.85), TWC (1.76), UPS (1.21), VRX (1.37), VIAB (.78), WM (.55)
After the Close: AMZN (.61), BIDU (1.05), LNKD (.60), P (-.30), WDC (1.29), WYNN (.83)