Market Recon Friday

Good Morning,
                        There it is, gang.  The finish line.  Close of business, Friday style.  Finish strong (you are mighty).  Do it because, they bet against you.  You all know someone who bet against you.  Now, rise, and beat that guy.  Beat those guys, if there are many.  Never lose that chip on your shoulder.  Now, let’s move out.
                        I see articles in our favorite publications today, trying to describe the currency moves versus the commodity moves versus yesterday’s equity market reversal, and to a given point they make some sense.  That said, I think that there is a widespread misunderstanding of the existing monetary environment to a certain degree.  Is there a divergence in direction ?? Clearly.  We all know that the ECB, while not throwing money out of helicopters is preparing to buy non-bank corporate debt of varying maturities.  If that doesn’t work, they probably buy thermoses, pencil cases, and circus tickets…. oh most definitely circus tickets.  Then there’s the BOJ.  These guys don’t really seem too afraid of going out on a limb.  People get like that when they have nothing to lose.  People with nothing to lose are dangerous.  Think about that for a second.
                      Then there’s the Fed.  Today’s article in the paper points toward dwindling Initial Jobless Claims as a reason supporting a next rate hike that might come sooner rather than later.  The author seems to believe that US macro is steadily getting better.  While I do not agree with his underlying theory, I can see where he’s going.  I think that the FOMC is stuck in place due to a long line of lousy macro-economic data-points.  Fact is that even being stuck in place, that do-nothing policy may just be divergent enough to move the US dollar higher against it’s peers.  On top of that, never forget that the Federal Reserve Bank is a privately owned entity, and their job is to make money, not to make everything okay for swell people like yourself.  In support of that authors thesis, but for a very different reason….. If they get marching orders from their banking masters, march they will….even if you are in the way.  At least be thinking about how you are defending your family against every eventuality. Btw, these are some of those folks who bet against you….. a long time ago.  Now, tape on the foil.
.
The Count
.
09:45 ET
.
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (April):  This one tends to get overlooked by macro observers, because… let’s face it….. Americans really don’t pay much attention to the data that Markit pumps out. Today, however, they may watch for two reasons.  One.  The ISM doesn’t do Flash releases, and so hence, there is no competition for trader attention.  …and Two.  The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was such a nasty slap in the face of anyone rooting for a rebound in the manufacturing space yesterday, that quite simply, they are watching for the next slice of manufacturing pie.  We are looking for something the high 51’s today, maybe even as high as 52.  Markit’s numbers have been well above the ISM’s numbers throughout the entire collapse that we’ve seen in this space, so something that comes in on expectations or above may be overlooked, but a miss Particularly a bad one) will likely be noticed.
.
13:00 ET
.
Baker Hughes Rig Count (Weekly):  Last week, the total US rig count came in at 440, 351 of which were devoted to oil production.  That was a reduction of three from the week prior.  To put this in perspective, this number is off of an all-time high of some 1600.  One year ago, the US has 1034 rig in operation, 734 of which were devoted to oil.  Just in case you’re new to this, those rigs not devoted to oil production are in the natural gas production business.  Given all of the impact that future oil production has had on Crude prices of late, this number has taken on an importance that rivals the Wednesday inventory print, so this will impact your afternoon….. no doubt about it.
.
Friday’s Earnings Highlights
.
Before the Open: AAL (1.19), CAT (.68), GE (.19), HON (1.50), MCD (1.16)
After the Close:  Hopefully a deliciously nasty plate of disgusting nachos. Oh yeah.