Market Recon Wednesday

Good Morning,
                        Global equities have hopped into the HOV lane this morning, cruising their collective way to higher prices.  Global equities that is, with a painful exception for Japan.  Japanese Industrial Production for February was hit with the ugly stick last night, just in case any of you have lives, and don’t follow global macro as if it were a sport.  Yup, yup, yup.  Maybe they should try easing monetary policy.
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Clarity
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                         When you think of clarity…. who doesn’t think of Janet Yellen ???  Janet Yellen was very clear yesterday about her concerns over inter-galactic economic weakness…..and who could blame her ??  Clearly, external threats abound.  A lot of other things are also very clear this morning.  The Fed is very clearly NOT data dependent.  That rascally gang of Fed speakers that James Bullard led into the wilderness last week either were sent out there to temporarily stabilize the US dollar (at the request of the ECB, BOJ, etc.), or in their defense…. maybe they just thought that the Fed WAS data dependent.  On that, I am unclear.  (Think I just stuck up for James Bullard, may have to recant).  Oh, and our highly touted dot plots ARE clearly no indication of future price points for the Fed Funds Rate.  (You already knew that)  The futures market is clearly a far more accurate indicator of the path that will likely be taken.  Do I make myself clear?
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Lonesome Dove
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08:15 ET
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ADP Employment Report (March): This item has been running, for the most part, anywhere from the 190k’s into the lower 200k’s for sometime now.  This data-point has also been semi-regularly printing well below the official BLS Non-Farm Payroll number that it is meant to predict.  For February, this one hit the tape at 214K, which was up from the month prior, and beat expectations.  Today, consensus is for just under 200K, with a fairly wide range.  Basically anything between 160K, and 230K will be taken in stride by the marketplace.  I’ve said it before, you will likely get a reaction in the futures market at the time of this release, but by Friday, this one will be log forgotten.
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10:30 ET
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Oil Inventories (Weekly): You all saw what happened last week.  With the experts looking for a “lofty” three million barrel increase in supply, the Tuesday night API (American Petroleum Institute print showed an increase of a mind blowing 8.8 million barrels.  Well, what do you know, the Wednesday EIA (Energy Information Administration) number sported an even higher increase of an incredible 9.4 million barrels.  Today, the experts look for 3 million barrels again.  Last night, the API number came in at far more “in line” growth number of 2.6 million barrels.  What do you think happens in this space today?
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13:00 ET
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Fed Speaker:  Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans speaks in New York City.  Evans is not a voting member of the FOMC this year, and will likely telegraph his speech in a TV interview at 08:30 ET.  Evans, well known as a dove, was already well entrenched in that camp last week, while everyone else was playing the hawkish role.  Evans is on record indicating that he’s okay letting inflation run a little hot…. so if you liked Janet Yellen yesterday, you’ll probably like this guy today.  See, I did it.  I wrote a paragraph about a Fed official without bashing anyone.  I feel like I could do anything right now.
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Wednesday’s Earnings Highlights
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Before the Open: CCL (.32), LULU (.80), PAYX (.50)
After the Close: MU (-.08)