Market Recon Tuesday

Good Morning,
                       As that pretty little head of yours leaves the warmth, and perceived safety of that wonderful sanctuary that you call a pillow, you’ll likely notice (at some point) that global equities are lower this morning.  Not a full scale rout, mind you, but the screen is painted a mild shade of pinkish red.  So, what’s the deal for today?  We did see a business climate survey release results that were below expectations in Germany, and the DAX is kinda, sorta leading Europe lower.  China did peg the yuan lower against the dollar.  Didn’t see that one coming, right?  Some commodities, including oil are a bit weaker this morning, after yesterday’s pop.  maybe it’s all of these things.  Maybe it’s none of them.
                     Today could be very interesting indeed.  In fact, why just today??  The whole darned global marketplace is so intellectually riveting.  Who doesn’t like a hard to solve puzzle?  Markets do not, or at least should not go parabolic….ever.   Elliot Wave theorists aside, if they do….something, somewhere is severely broken.  The kind of digestion that we saw last Thursday, and Friday were extremely healthy for the marketplace.  I wouldn’t mind one of those kind of days on the heels of yesterday’s move.  Sideways to mildly lower days that occur during a market spike represent, at least to me….. some profit taking, and some hedging… but certainly are not representative of a risk-off mood……. and I think it’s safe to call what we’ve seen since the S&P 500 hit 1810 a week and a half ago “a market spike”.
                     As always, keep your eyes on the four horsemen of “The Safety Dance”.  Gold, Treasuries, the Utility sector, and the VIX.  If these leaders of gloom and doom are not ripping to the upside together, then you don’t have to panic (I think/hope) just yet either.  FYI, yesterday, the VIX was trading in the 19’s for most of the day.  One or more of these known reapers can move for a number of reasons, but when they move together…well, that’ll most likely be the day that you need your helmet, flak jacket, and gas mask.
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Macro
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08:55 ET
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Redbook (Weekly):  Usually looked at in year over year fashion, this one finally turned around what had been five consecutive weeks of lower y/y improvements, posting a 0.9% y/y gain.  Look for some traction in the number today.
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09:00 ET
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Case-Shiller HPI (December):  They’ll slice and dice this one six ways to Sunday. The one print that traders will notice will be the 20 city, year over year, non-seasonally adjusted number.  That one turned the corner back late in the Spring, and has been steadily improving ever since (See, you give me an honest reason for happy feet, and I’ll run with it).  The November release showed price growth of 5.8%, and that is the consensus view for this print.  The skew, however is heavily weighted toward the upside, so a positive surprise would not surprise me.
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10:00 ET
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Consumer Confidence (February): This item, which is released by the Conference Board, not the University of Michigan, has been wildly volatile over the last year and change…or about as fickle as the American consumer.  Still, in my opinion, anything 90 plus is still pretty good, and this little guy hasn’t printed below 90 since October of 2014.  Most economists are looking for something in the mid 97’s today, coming off of January’s 98.1.  Nobody on the Street is below 95 on this item today.
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Existing Home Sales (January): In December, we saw this item surge back to the levels it had been running at prior to a disastrous number for November.  That whole zig, and zag turned out to be an administrative quirk regarding new rules, that won’t happen again ( at least not soon).  Look for a print today in the neighborhood of 5.34 million units (SAAR), which is smack dab in the middle of the range, and if true would keep this data-point in line with where it’s been printing for about three quarters of a year now.
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (February): Over here !!!  Yo !!!  Here it is, a slice of the manufacturing pie sporting numbers that place it in a state of expansion, for not one, but two consecutive months…and the expectation for today, is for a repeat of last month’s 2 print.  Btw, New Orders (what really counts) have been a strength.
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20:30
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Fed Speaker:  Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fisher will be in Houston, Texas to speak on monetary policy.  We really haven’t heard much from Fisher for about three weeks.  At that time, he seemed uncertain on what path the Fed should be taking going forward, which if anything…is at least honest.  He will take questions after the speech, and is obviously a voting member of the FOMC.
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Tuesday’s Earnings Highlights
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Before the Open: CTB (.73), HD (1.10), M (1.87), TOL (.40)
After the Close: FSLR (.77), PZZA (.58), SF (.67)
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Note:  I’ll see you kids on Monday.  There will be no Market Recon until then.  God bless.  For clients, the phones, and my spot on the trading floor will be manned by your friend, and mine, Paulie Lawless.  I know you like that guy.