Market Recon Tuesday

Good Morning,
                       Yesterday’s movement for the S&P 500 was so precisely technical, as to be remarkable.  From the early resistance at 1902, to the violent break at 1890, to the final support at 1876, it was almost as if the script were written earlier in the day.  Really stunning, if you’re a numbers nerd.  Even if you’re a fundamentals guy, and I am one at heart, you really do have to learn this stuff.  Remember, the guys writing the programs are chart-monkeys, you might as well look at what they’re looking at. Today really begins this week, as the onslaught of macro, and quarterly earnings releases gets itself in headline making gear.  There’s a lot to get after, and keep your eyes on, so we might as well stop talking about how mush there is to look at, and start tearing it apart, so we can all make ourselves (or save) a buck.
                      Global equities are well mixed this morning, with an overall bias to the down side.  Said bias was more than a little dramatic in Shanghai, where the Composite Index gave up more than 6.4%.  Today’s big worry for Chinese investors….. capital outflows.  This beating taken by Shanghai was their worst in…wait for it…wait for it… almost three weeks.  It also has traders talking about support at the 2500 level now that 2800 is gonzo.  That index is now 47% of it’s Summer highs.
                      The rest of Asia was down significantly less than China today, with Europe down significantly less than Asia.  There were slightly green arrows to be seen in India, and Italy.  European shares seem to be towed around by Crude as Oil (Black gold that is) meandered around on it’s own volatile path this morning.
                       Did I mention the Fed ???  LOL….. Let’s bash those guys tomorrow.
.
Macro
.
08:55 ET
.
Redbook (Weekly):  This weekly measure of comparable store sales across most of your retail chains has been losing steam of late, though still managing to sport year over year gains.  Last week’s print showed growth of 1.4% y/y, while printing in the red on a m/m basis.
.
09:00 ET
.
FHFA HPI (November):  This would be a tale of two HPI’s with this being the one that nobody you know will react to, or even mention, but just in case all you care about is single family homes with conventional mortgages that involve either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, then this is your cup of tea.  For October, this item saw a m/m increase of 0.5%, today we expect to see a slight drop in the rate of m/m growth to 0.4%.
.
Case-Shiller HPI (November):  Now, this would be the HPI that everybody looks at, and though this item is released in many different formats, it is the 20 city, y/y non-seasonally adjusted format that gets the most attention.  For November, we expect to see that specific item print at 5.7%, which would an improvement from October’s 5.5%, and smack dab in the middle of consensus range.
.
09:45 ET
.
Markit Services Flash PMI (January):  The December final for Markit’s Service Sector PMI printed at 54.3.  Projections are for the rate of growth here to have continued to have cooled from the 57s and 58s that we saw early in 2015.
.
10:00 ET
.
Consumer Confidence (January):  Even with many parts of the economy taking a nose dive over the last few months, the great American consumer has remained optimistic (kooky, ain’t it?) in most surveys that reflect that kind of “sentiment”.  Although this item, which is released by the Conference Board has been volatile, it has not printed below 90 in well over a year.  December came in at 96.5, and those polled are looking for something very close to that number today.  The range for this one spans from 91 to 100.
.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ( January):  Did you guys see that Dallas print yesterday ??? Gee whiz, that was a bout as ugly as ugly gets…..and we’ve seen ugly get pretty ugly.  Well, Richmond did that rarest of all things for an American manufacturing index in December.  They printed a number that showed expansion.  I kid you not…. and very brave economists are predicting a two month winning streak today for this item.  We’ll see… but I am rooting for them.  Richmond had been a regular out-performer in this space throughout 2015.
.
Tuesday’s Earnings Highlights
.
Note:  As of yesterday afternoon, expiring weekly AAPL options were pricing in about three and a half clams worth of volatility for this afternoon’s earnings release.  I can check that for you today if you need it.
.
Before the Open: MMM (1.62), COH (.66), DD (.27), FCX (-.16), JNJ (1.42), LMT (2.92), PG (.98),
After the Close: AAPL (3.23), T (.63), COF (1.61), X (-.86)
.
Reminder:  You just read this note.  Somebody somewhere didn’t get that far this morning.  You’re one and oh today.  Don’t waste it.