There is a chance…. don’t get too fired up, but there is a chance that market forces will let you come up for air today. Last night we got word that Chinese GDP grew at a 6.8% pace for the fourth quarter, and a 6.9% pace for year 2015. That, by the way, though expected was the worst print in that space since 1990. The “good news” ended there as the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics also reported numbers for December Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Fixed Asset Investment that, in all three cases surprised to the down side. Boooooooo, but hang on…. there is a silver ling. Those who think about these things all got down on one knee and decided together that further stimulus from the PBOC (China’s central bank) was most likely…. on the way. Bring out the jugglers, and the plate spinners !!!
Those stimulus hopes helped put a bid under Oil, which in turn put a bid under global equities, as well as US equity index futures markets. On top of all of that, the ECB is reporting that lending institutions within the Euro-Zone have already started easing credit conditions, and are expected to continue doing so into 2016. Huzzah !!
Wait, gang !! There’s more. That global center for international incompetence also known as the IMF has spoken out yet again.Yes they cut GDP forecasts for the US, China, others, and for planet Earth in general, and called for easier monetary policy, but…. there was one quote that just blew me away. Check this cutie out. “Indeed, in an environment of higher risk aversion and market volatility, even idiosyncratic shocks in a relatively large emerging market or developing economy could generate broader contagion effects” Wow, ya think ?? At least now everybody knows to be on the lookout for idiosyncratic shocks in emerging, and developing economies. Not sure, but heard that the IMF may also predict Janet Yellen taking over at the Fed when Ben Bernanke retires.
Tomorrow is a far better day for macro, but today… we will have a couple of numbers to look at.
A Couple of Numbers
10:00 ET…..NAHB Housing Market Index (January): Basically, this one is what you might call the homebuilder confidence index. This item printed in decline for the second month in a row in December at 61. Expectations are that the number holds at that 61 level this month. Not a single economist that I saw has a number below 60, nor above 62 for this one today.
16:00 ET…..TIC (November): Being released simultaneously with the closing bell, this one will not directly impact your day today, but it certainly is one to keep your eye on. The October data presented the United States with just its’ second net out-flow of 2015, with cross- border demand for long-term US securities printing at $-16.6 billion. Chinese holdings for US Treasuries actually remained quite stable for the month. It was the Japanese accounts that reduced their holdings of US Treasuries by a rough $25 billion. that made the difference.
Tuesday’s Earnings Highlights
Plenty of earnings on tap for the day. This morning’s focus will still be on the financials, but even with far fewer releases…. it will the pm that looks like it presents the most opportunity for day-traders. It is also those late ones that will get the most media attention today.
Before the Open: BAC (.27), SCHW (.25), CMA (.69), DAL (1.19), MS (1.97), SBNY (1.93), UNH (1.38)
After The Close: IBM (4.82), NFLX (.02).