Market Recon Wednesday

Good Morning,
                        I know that you’ve been asking yourself if Tuesday’s “run”, after Monday’s sell-off was the coming of the bearded fellow in the red pajamas.  Well…. good chance that you’ll find that answer today.  WTI Crude is back in “slap me around” mode this morning after the American Petroleum Institute predicted a hefty increase in supply when the EIA spits out their weekly inventory print at 10:30 ET.  To make matters worse for the energy sector, there is also some profit taking going on in the Nat Gas arena here in the zero dark hours.
                      Globally, equity markets are well mixed in the early going.  Shanghai is up small, while the DAX is slightly lower, but nobody is even half of a percent from where they started.  US futures markets are trading sideways as well, but there is some of that “thin ice” feeling.  I guess soon enough, we’ll find out how key last night’s close above SPX 2077 actually was.  The macro calendar is rather light all around the planet this morning, but what I see, I’m not really loving.  Spain missed it’s mark for the CPI Flash, Norwegian Retail Sales disappointed, and the Italian Treasury held a rather lackluster auction for 10 year paper.  Norway ??  Diggin’ deep, kids.
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The Goods
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10:00 ET
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Pending Home Sales (November):  In October, Pending Home Sales showed a m/m increase of 0.2%, which may seem rather paltry, but keep in mind that three of the four months prior to that sported fairly nasty contractions in that space.  Consensus for today appears to be up around 0.6% m/m.  Now, stay with me here….that 0.2% in October was a huge miss, up against a 1.6% m/m consensus at that time.  That miss came to fruition last week, when November Existing Home Sales missed badly (November New Home Sales missed badly last week too).  Point is…. I do not trust the consensus opinion of late in anything housing.  This is not usually a high focus number, but another nasty miss could leave a nasty mark.  BTW, the y/y print has been trending steadily lower ever since April.
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10:30 ET
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Oil Inventories (Weekly):  How do you ruin what might appear to be a very fragile “Santa Claus” rally ???  Smack the stuffing out of Crude… that’s how, and that is what happened after that API number this morning.  This could just be the item of the day.  Last week, we saw contraction in supplies, and it was a sizable reduction at that…. -5.9 million barrels.  Not only that, but last week was the second of three that we saw reduced supply.  Expectations (that are almost always wrong., mind you) are for a further draw down, though smaller… maybe -1.8 million barrels.  Do I trust that  number ?? Not a chance.  Do I trust the number put forth this morning ??  Aahhhh, I don’t know.  Do I think traders will  react to this number ??  You can bet your tail.
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Remember gang, if nobody’s got you up against a wall, while his buddy goes through your pockets, then it ain’t so bad.  Everything is relative.  Now, get in there.  Rise.  Prove yourself to yourself.  You are the only guy/gal that you have to impress today.  The rest of us are simply peripheral noise..