Market Recon Wednesday

Good Morning,
                        Equities are strong across Europe this morning (despite disastrous numbers for French Consumer Spending & Italian Retail Sales), and if you have not seen US futures markets just yet…they are trading well above fair value.  The catalyst?  Oil.  Pure and simple.  WTI Crude has further strengthened here in today’s early going…oh, and probably a little of what I wrote about yesterday morning, although some of those “bargain” entry points are starting to disappear.  Is the chase on?  Maybe.
                        We have oodles of macro scheduled for your enjoyment today.  Lot’ of high impact type stuff too.  I know, it’s December 23rd, and you want to make merry, but (another big but), alas…. we have a job to do, so we might as well do our very best.  Enough small talk, let’s get right to it.
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The Numbers
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08:30 ET
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Durable Goods Orders (November): Durable Goods orders have remained volatile in 2015 (though nothing like Autumn 2014), slipping back and forth between growth, and contraction throughout the year.  The headline print for October came in at a hefty 3.0% increase on a m/m basis (3rd best of the year), while the Core (ex-transportation) print sported 0.5% m/m growth (2nd best of the year).  All of that warm and fuzzy wonderfulness is expected to have unfortunately dissipated in November.  We look for scores of -0.5% at the headline, and a flat 0.0% m/m at the Core.  The range is very wide for the headline print, with several economists fairly distant from zero in both directions, increasing the likelihood of a surprise in that space. Oh joy.
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Personal Income and Consumer Spending (November): I consider these two items to be the greatest rivalry in macro-economics.  Basically, it’s a measure of how well the guy across the street, and the lady with all of the cats who lives on your corner are doing.  If their expenses are growing faster than their income, some people (selfish ones) will love it, but in the end, everybody gets hurt.  So, we’re rooting for Income here, and Income has indeed won the last two monthly battles.  Said it before, the consumer has to be comfortable.  The projection here is that the winning trend ends in November.  Look for Personal Income to have expanded by 0.2% m/m in today’s print, off of October’s 0.4%.  You can also expect to see that Consumer Spending grew 0.3%m/m, up from last month’s 0.1%.
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PCE (November):  Here we are, watching Janet Yellen, and the FOMC family singers’ favored measure of consumer level inflation.  We are expecting to see a headline print of 0.0% m/m, and growth of 0.1% m/m at the Core.  Now, we all know that the year over year number will be somewhere close to 1.4%, even though Core CPI is already at 2.0%.  Let’s play a game called “Follow the measure of consumer level inflation that tells people that they aren’t paying more for stuff, because they’re are all morons, and they might freak out if you tell them something else”.  Oh, I see you thought of that game already.  My bad, Carry on.
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10:00 ET
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New Home Sales (November): Consensus for this item is for 505K units when measured in seasonally adjusted, annualized rate kind of way.  This would be up from 495K in October.  Know what I think ???  I think this consensus view was formed by the same cast of characters that missed yesterday 10% drop in Existing Home Sales…..nice job fellas.  Spin the wheel….pick a number.  You might be closer than these guys.
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U of M Consumer Sentiment (December final): The preliminary print from the Victors of the West came in at 91.8 two weeks ago.  With that warm, and fuzzy vibe going around, we’re going to take a shot and look for something with a 92 handle.  Go get ’em, sport.
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10:30 ET
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Oil Inventories (Weekly): Last week we saw an increase in supply here in this space of 4.8 million barrels, when a contraction of something like 300K was expected.  Instead of throwing a number at you here, we’re just going to tell you to buckle your chinstrap at 10:29.  Fair enough ??
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Fed Speakers
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               Yeah right, it’s the holidays.  There are also no significant (in my opinion) quarterly earnings on today’s docket.