Market Recon Tuesday

Good Morning,
                        I nearly did a double take this morning.  Pretty sure am I, that I saw WTI Crude trading above $36 a barrel.  Nah, that would be just plain silly.  Global equities are staying fairly close to where they started their various trading sessions so far.  In most cases (Shanghai & Europe) they opened higher, sold off hard, and then rallied hard…. kind of like what happened at 11 Wall Street yesterday.
                       Now……about that Santa Claus Rally…. Seems to me that everybody I follow is saying “Not this year”.  I know, that some folks probably think that I’m a perma-bull, I’m really not, it’s just that being a perma-bull has worked for me for a number of consecutive years now.  I still think there’s a chance for this year.  I may be wrong, heck, we’re all wrong sometimes.  There are some reasons to believe that line from “Dumber and Dumber”.  “So, you’re saying that there’s a chance?”
                       We’ve been talking all month about winning managers taking a hike.  Poof !! They’re gone.  We’ve been talking all month about Tax-Loss selling.  Poof !! That’s pretty much out of the way.  All of the landmines on our road to victory are still in the way, but…..and this is a big but….We’ve been talking all month about losing money managers who may have to jump in toward the end of the year in order to chase performance……   Oh, wait… those guys are still out there, aren’t they ??  …and they are suddenly staring at what looks like bargain entry points (and interest rates are still very low, and if Oil finds a bid….. a lot of guys are short Oil & Energy) … hmmmm.  Like I said, no promises, kiddies, but if Oil does find that bid here, well, anything’s possible.  The Mets did win the pennant, and the Jets are in the playoff hunt.
                       Gang, we’ve got a ton of macro to take in both today, and tomorrow.  No such thing as coasting into the end of our shortened week.  Let’s take a look under the hood, and see what’s gonna slap us around today.
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Macro
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08:30 ET
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GDP (Q3-F): The lack of excitement around this release is notable.  After last month’s revision to 2.1% from the initial 1.5% largely on increased estimates for inventory building, the number is expected to dip back below that 2 handle in this, the final revision for the third quarter.  Consensus is for 1.9% q/q SAAR, without much of a range.  There would likely have to be a big surprise here for anyone in the markets to get fired up.
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08:55 ET
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Redbook (Weekly):  Last week, this number dropped to 1.5% y/y.  I think all of us who watch the retailers would like to see a number that at least approached 2.0% this late in what has been an inconsistent season thus far, especially sitting on that inventory build.
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09:00 ET
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FHFA HPI (October):  Three cheers for the HPI that nobody watches.  Don’t spend any intellectual capital on this one, gang.  Case-Shiller is scheduled to be released next Tuesday.  Make sure that you pay attention to that one.
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10:00 ET
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Existing Home Sales (November):  Really, housing data already.  Man, does time fly.  It’s like being on a treadmill, or in the movie “Groundhog Day”.  We saw a nasty drop-off in October to what I still consider to be a fairly strong number.  We expect to see another drop, though a smaller one this month, to maybe 5.33 million units when measured in SAAR fashion.  The low end of the range is still 5.1 million, which would have been a great print not too long ago.  Heads up…Folks do watch this item.
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (December):  They say that misery loves company.  That, I guess is about the only thing going for the regional Fed district manufacturing surveys. Richmond only has a three month losing streak going, which is a whole lot better than the Empire State, and that energy sector related mess down there in Dallas.  This will be a close one, with expectations at -1, there is a slight chance for an expansionary print in this space today.
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Tuesday’s Earnings Highlights
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                  These will be the last significant quarterly earnings releases of the week, and though they are few, there are a couple of doozies in here.
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Before the Open: CAG (.59)
After the Close: MU (.23), NKE (.86).