I know that we had a nice move last week in US equity markets, but it is this week that traditionally is when you would see that fabled “Santa Claus” rally. As you are most likely well aware, a well rounded long biased portfolio can squeeze a percent or more out it’s performance this week, a rough 75% to 80% of the time. That said, there’s no such thing as a free lunch, so stick to your targets, and take profits in names that you held onto for too long and then suddenly, unexpectedly present said profit. First, and foremost…. the markets would actually have to rally.
In order to see the rally from last week continue, Oil will have to play ball. Last week, Crude found that salvation bid. So far today, WTI is a bit soft, as traders in those markets take some profits. Shanghai kicked things off with a 2.5% beat-down, and pretty much the entire planet (less, those closed for Boxing Day) have followed suit. S&P futures are trading eight points below fair value as I type this note out.
There are no earnings releases out there this week that I think worthy of a spot in the marble notebook. Doesn’t look like any Fed Speakers will be out and about either. That leaves us with the macro calendar, which itself is very light compared to last week’s heavy duty macro blitz.
We only have one macro-economic data-point to look at today, and that would be the long time loser, also known as the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey, December edition. The last time this item avoided the dubious distinction of printing in contraction was December of 2014. The expectation for this release is something close to -5.2, which would complete a winless 2015 in Big D. Only slightly worse than the Cowboys. I will have you know that there are outlier economists who are projecting a positive number today.
Good luck today, gang. If you’re already working hard, the battle is half won. Stay focused. Arrogance will cut you off at the knees as fast as will laziness. I trust that you are neither, but if you are like me, you must guard against both. Carry on.