Market Recon Wednesday (Thanksgiving Eve)

Good Morning,
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Thanksgiving
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                       Parking lots are sort of empty out in my neck of the woods this morning.  Trains are much less full than usual as well.  Sneaky suspicion that those trains won’t be so empty on the commute home today…..and so it is.  While it appears that much of the labor force has chosen to squeeze an fifth day out this “holiday weekend”, those of us who both wake up on this side of the dirt, and have a place of employment to head out to on this day (and on Friday) will offer Thanksgiving.  Really.  For we are the truly lucky ones.  On top of that, if you have friends or family that care enough to either invite you in, or travel to your domicile for tomorrow, then that is truly fortunate.  Say a prayer (or whatever it is that you do) for someone less fortunate.  It’s also OK if you bring them gloves, socks, and packaged food.  Just don’t do it alone.
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On With Wednesday
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                        Looks to me like nobody shot anybody else down last night.  European equities are mostly higher (despite disappointing Italian Retail Sales), while US futures markets drift slightly into the green.  You may have noticed the DXY moving above 100 in the wee hours.
                        Gang, I don’t see any Fed speakers out there today, and the only quarterly earnings release that caught my eye was DE (.74).  They’ll report before the opening bell this morning.  That does not mean at all that we don’t have anything to talk about.  Truth is that I’m about to inundate you with so many numbers that your head will hurt.  There’s no way around it, if you want to be prepared.  It is OK if you need to get a second cup of coffee, or need to take a break in the middle. (If you need a break, there is a chance that you may be a sissy, but that’s still OK)  The 08:30, and 10:00 time slots are going to be doozies.
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Fear The Macro muhahaha
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08:30 ET
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Durable Goods Orders (October):  We are looking for a bounce in this space after two straight months of contraction both at the Headline, and at the Core (ex-transportation).  The top line print is expected to sport a month over month increase of 1.5%, perhaps bloated by aircraft orders placed at the Dubai airshow.  Even minus those transportation purchase orders, the expectation at the Core is for a 0.5% m/m gain.  Note that the low end of the range for both of these is in the plus column, so a third month of contraction would be taken by the marketplace as very negative.
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Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly):  Last week, this item came in at 271K, which also happens to be our four week moving average.  Consensus this week is for some extreme volatility… like maybe 272K.  If so, the four week average, which is how you look at this one won’t be moving too much.
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Personal Income (October): Until September kicked us in the pants, this item had seen five consecutive months of m/m increases of 0.4% or more.  Didn’t seem like it, did it? Yeesh.  After last month 0.1% tag, the projection is to get back on track this month with another 0.4% tally.
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Consumer Spending (October):  Economists are looking for a rough month over month increase of 0.3% in this space today.  I love when Income beats Spending.  I know that the economic community always pushes for more spending, and the economy does need it, but I’m not rooting for a bunch of numbers on a spreadsheet so somebody can sell their agenda.  I’m rooting for you, and your middle class family.
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PCE Price Index (October):  Here we are… potentially the most important piece of news that we’ll see today….. Janet Yellen’s supposedly favorite measure of consumer level inflation.  Can you feel the chill?  Hopes for October are not that inflation ran wild on you, but that it did percolate just a little bit more than it did in September.  A very low bar has been set indeed.  The Headline print is expected to show a 0.2% m/m increase, up from last month’s contraction of -0.1% ( a little gnarly)….and at the Core, we look for our 10th consecutive monthly increase of 0.1%.
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09:00 ET
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FHFA HPI (September):  Case-Shiller reported in yesterday.  That one matters.  Nobody follows this one except maybe family members of the folks who run the FHFA.  Projections are for an increase of 0.5% m/m.  You won’t notice the result when it is released.
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09:45 ET
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Markit Services Flash PMI (November):  This item gets some notice, largely because the ISM number does not flash.  Folks are thinking that this one posts a 55.1 number today, which would be up from the October final of 54.8….. that nobody noticed because the ISM does print a final.
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10:00 ET
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New Home Sales (October):  Not nearly as large as Existing Home Sales, this item punches above it’s weight class, basically because of the implied job creation in the construction field.  A juicy increase is expected today of something close to 500K (SAAR) units, up from September’s 468K.  This is pretty much smack dab in the middle of the range, so you do have quite a ways to go for true surprise here.
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U of M Consumer Sentiment (November final):  The preliminary number printed at 93.1 two weeks ago.  Some economists are expecting this one to be revised higher today, but given the utter disaster that the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence ran into yesterday… I don’t know.  I do know that these two 10am data-points are both market impacting type releases in their own rights.
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10:30 ET
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Oil Inventories (Weekly):  Last week, supply only grew by less than 300K barrels, but it still grew for the eighth consecutive week, and the first seven were all large increases.  Most Oil traders are expecting a ninth straight week of increased inventory today…. size is hard to predict.
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12:00 ET
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Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly):  Supply only increased by 15 billion cubic feet last week, the smallest increase since April.  Expectations today are for a number close to flat, maybe even negative.  That said, I wouldn’t trade this release if you paid me.  Ok, I lied, I would too trade this one if you paid me.
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Still with me ??  Excellent !!
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Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
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SPX: 2106, 2098, 2092, 2086, 2076, 2069
RUT: 1201, 1197, 1192, 1187, 1183, 1178
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Warning : Strong possibility that I sleep on the train on Friday morning, and do not publish a note for the shortened trading session.