Market Recon Wednesday

Good Morning,
                       Just in case you have yet to turn on your television, or the radio in your car…there has been a wild manhunt for terrorists in France this morning resulting in a firefight, a suicide, and several arrests.  This has European equities somewhat softer, though nothing close to a rout.  US futures markets have remained remarkably stable in light of these terrorism related headlines.  In fact, one would have to say, that although the market did come in on that scare in Germany yesterday, the downslope on the chart was controlled, and the indices had recovered in time for the closing bell.
                      There will always be something to fear if you let yourself.  Far better to understand reality, and then deal with it, and that seems to be what’s happening here.  Today is Wednesday, and that’s really all that it should be.  The geo-political is overt.  It’s meant to hit the financial markets in the teeth.  Our concerns should be the macro, the micro, policy, and earnings.  You can do homework on that kind of stuff.  That’s what’s hiding in the weeds, and can/will sneak up on you.  That’s what we’ll focus on today.
.
In the Weeds
.
07:30 ET
.
Fed Speakers:  New York Fed Pres. William (Wild Bill) Dudley, Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis (The Spider) Lockhart, and Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester will discuss payment systems at a conference in New York City.  I don’t expect anything cage rattling here, but best to know that these guys are out there.  One slip of the tongue….
.
08:30 ET
.
Housing Starts (October):  Here’s an item that peaked in September, at least for Starts, and has actually cooled of late for Permits, but permits are just that.  Starts mean money spent, and jobs created.  Don’t forget, when you take this in, that this data-point is printed in “Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate” fashion, so this is not the actual data.  We all love actual data, and know that seasonal adjustments are just economic camouflage for sissies, but now is not the time for that fight.  Today we look for SAAR prints of something close to 1.16 million starts, and 1.15 million permits.  The ranges for both of these are kind of tight, so there is room for surprise today.  Housing has been this economy’s bright spot.  We need to see continued strength in this space (along with another strong Jobs print on Dec 4 with no negative revisions attached).
.
10:30 ET
.
Oil Inventories (Weekly):  Every week we think (hope) that the number will come in considerably lighter than the week before, and every week, inventories surprise to the upside.  This week we’re going to expect an eighth consecutive increase in supply of at least 2 million barrels, far more than we have expected in recent weeks.  Maybe we’ll be wrong again.  We’ll see.
.
12 Noon ET
.
Fed Speaker: Dallas Fed Pres. Rob Kaplan speaks on monetary policy in Houston.  Kaplan is not a voting member of the FOMC this year, nor will he be next year.  We do not have a catchy nickname for Rob.  Yet.
.
14:00 ET
.
FOMC Minutes:  They will be scrutinized.  They will be scoured.  Somebody must have said something.  Though the FOMC did indicate in that last statement that they would decide on rates at the next meeting, three week old info really means nothing in the end, but the markets will move on it.
.
Wednesday’s Earnings Highlights
.
Fun Fact (unless you’re long & wrong):  GMCR is down roughly 15 clams in two weeks, and about 90 bucks year to date.  Implied volatility for tonight is about 4 dollars.
.
Before the Open: LOW (.78), TGT (.86)
After the Close: GMCR (.71)
.
Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
.
SPX: 2069, 2063, 2055, 2045, 2035, 2026
RUT: 1165, 1159, 1155, 1149, 1141, 1136
OK, you can come out of the weeds now.  Have a great day.  That’s an order.  SPX 2055 remains key here.