Market Recon Tuesday

Good Morning,
                        Well, when folks refer to this as “turkey week”, they probably had something else in mind.  If you’re just waking up, the Turkish military has apparently shot down a Russian SU-24 warplane.  The details of what happened are still unclear.  The plane may, or may not have crossed over into Turkish airspace from Syria….the Turks may or may not have warned the plane ten times before firing.  Bottom line is that a NATO member country shot down a “Warsaw Pact” fighter plane, and European equities, US equity futures, and crude futures markets have all had noticeable reactions.  S&P futures had been trading higher, then sold off hard on the news….then recovered somewhat, and have semi-stabilized.
                       That be what it is, now gone is that warm and fuzzy sentimental boost that overnight markets saw from the $SPX holding the 2085 level at last night’s close.  The ballgame is now on, and it will probably get a little sloppy out there today.  There are several items out there that will impact your success today.  Only thing to do, is lay them out, make sense of them, and go forth.  Let’s dig in and focus, gang.
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 The Macro
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                   Tomorrow, we’ll face an absolute onslaught of domestic macro-economic data-points, but there’s enough on our plates for today, including the revision to GDP mentioned below.  Helmets, and flak jackets, Gasmasks on the hip.  I want 20 meters between all of you.  Move.
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 08:30 ET
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 GDP (Q3 Revision):  Just about everyone knows by now that estimates for inventory building were a bit on the low side when the initial estimate for Q3 GDP reported in at 1.5% on q/q SAAR basis last month.  A more accurate reading for inventories in this second look at Q3 should prop the estimate for GDP up to, or even slightly higher than 2.0%.  Anything less will create a situation for the marketplace where, after the positive reaction to the last FOMC meeting, bad could…actually be bad.
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 08:55 ET
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 Redbook (Weekly):  This weekly measure of retail sales at chains, and discounters has been moderately consistent of late.  Last week, we saw a y/y increase of 1.2%, which came on top of the prior week’s 1.1% y/y gain.  This is one to keep an eye on for the sector, but it will not change market direction.
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 09:00 ET
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 Case-Shiller HPI (September):  As far as HPIs go, this is the one to keep tabs on.  Within this release there are many sub-components.  The one that most traders follow is the y/y, non-seasonally adjusted print.  That item cam in at 5.1% for August, which is the low end of the range for today’s number.  Most economists I track are looking for 5.2%, or 5.3% in this space today.  Another item that will not change, but could reinforce market direction.
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 10:00 ET
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 Consumer Confidence (November):  This suddenly volatile data-point is coming off of a 97.6 print….which is pretty darn good….if you’re not coming off of back to back 100+ prints.  Projections are for a rebound here in November to something in the neighborhood of 99.4.  We sure are confident bunch aren’t we? Good thing they didn’t ask me.
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 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November):  We’ve got a winning streak going.  After the Empire State bogied again, Philly, and KC have squeaked out positive numbers.  Can Richmond make it three in a row?  Consensus is for a big fat zero, so this could go either way.
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 Tuesday’s Earnings Highlights
                Today is really the only day of the week with any earnings meat to chew on.  I see implied volatility for TIF at about three and a half buck, and for HRL at a little less than two dollars.  Have fun.
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Before the Open:  CPB (.76), HRL (.68), TIF (.75)
After the Close: HPQ (.97)
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Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
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SPX: 2106, 2098, 2091, 2085, 2076, 2069, 2063
RUT: 1192, 1187, 1183, 1177, 1171, 1164, 1160