Market Recon Cyber Monday

Good Morning,
                       What an interesting week we have ahead of us.  I keep hearing about how there is a ton of data about to be just poured on us this week.  There truly is, but I think it’s not so much the number of data-points, but it’s the big ticket items that we are looking at.  Earnings might be so “two weeks ago”, but the looming ECB policy decision on Thursday that will come a day ahead of November Jobs Day here in the US.  The implications of two central banks possibly moving in opposite directions are being be reflected in this morning’s northerly moving DXY.
                       Then there’s Black (Cyber) Friday/Cyber Monday.  Not really surprised are you?  With the experience of Black Friday truly an unenjoyable one for just about everyone who paticiapates, and the retailers’ continued dilution of their own big sales event….why would anyone go shopping on that day? Why?  Tis’ the season.
                        Guess what ?  China’s in the news.  Can’t believe it can you?  Actually, today…. China is the news.  First off, the Shanghai Composite was in the process of adding to it’s Friday Smack-Down Special to the tune of about 3%, when the “take ’em” guys showed up.  Hmmmm.  The late afternoon rally took Shanghai into the green by the close od business.  Ahhh, Summer Dreamin’.  On top of that, this next item will not impact the way you trade today, or tomorrow, but the IMF adding the Chinese currency to Planet Earth’s reserve currency basket is a pretty big deal economically, and also prestige wise.
                        Am I done with China ? No, certainly not.  Tonight, we’ll get numbers out of the mainland  that likely will impact global trade on Tuesday.  We’ll see both the government, and Caixin (formerly HSBC) PMI’s for the manufacturing, and service sectors.  Just a reminder…the government manufacturing PMI has printed below 50 for three straight months, and the Caixin number has only printed above 50 once in 2015.
                         It’s at times like this, gang, that Arthur usually passes some good advice with two simple words…. “Stay Nimble” ….and it is good advice.  The additional effort, and expense of protecting your positions might also be a good idea.
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Today
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09:45
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Chicago PMI (November):  Talk about volatile.  Good thing that traders don’t really move on this item anymore.  We’re coming off of an October release of 56.2, which came off of a September print of 48.7.  Consensus is for 54.1 today, but consensus here has made a habit of being wildly wrong.  Expect nothing, or throw a dart.
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10:00 ET
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Pending Home Sales (October):  Here in this space, projections are for a return to growth.  Economists are looking for a month over month increase of 1.3% after back to back months of contraction.  Remember Pending Home Sales turn into Exiting Home Sales.  This one is far more important than most folks realize.
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10:30 ET
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November):  As you know, the manufacturing biz in this country has really taken it on the chin this year, particularly the latter part of the year.  No data-point illustrates the collapse in American manufacturing more so than the Dallas Fed print, largely due to the collapse in energy/crude prices.  We all know that all of the regional Fed districts went through a recent rough patch.  Unless you follow closely, you might not know that Dallas has printed in contraction all year long, December 2014 being the last time this one poked it’s head above zero.  Not only that, but the size of the negative prints has been rather severe.  Today we look for something close to -12.5, which if so, would be the 7th time in 2015 that the negative number exceeded 10.
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Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
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SPX: 2106, 2098, 2092, 2085, 2076, 2069
RUT: 1212, 1206, 1202, 1196, 1192, 1187