Market Recon Tuesday

Good Morning,
                       Global equities appear to be meandering their way (slightly lower) through  the Tuesday session.  Not a lot of macro abroad this morning, although the Brits did see a disappointing first look at Q3 GDP.  Perhaps everyone is waiting on the Fed this week, would be ridiculous….. given that by my calculations, the FOMC has a negative fifteen percent chance of taking action tomorrow afternoon.  Oh, and anyone looking for December clues in tomorrow’s statement…LOL.
                       The macro returns in size today, and stays active throughout the rest of the week.  Let’s set the table for you, so you can navigate what should be a far busier day than yesterday, even with that dastardly Fed on hold until tomorrow.
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Macro Data Jam Session
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08:30
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Durable Goods Orders (September):  It seems that this one just can’t get out of it’s own way, swinging back and forth between positive m/m growth, and m/m contraction.  The headline print is coming off of a bad August, and the likelihood is that September will not show improvement.  We look for -1.1% m/m in this space.  Strip out transportation purchases, and the number is better but still not good.  At the Core, most economist are either looking for a flat to slightly negative print.  This item can surprise, and can move the marketplace.
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08:55
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Redbook (Weekly):  This measure of retail health sported both a fairly musculsar 1.3% y/y gain last week, as well as m/m contraction of -0.1%.  Huh ?
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09:00
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Case-Shiller HPI (August):  Remember last week, when I told you that nobody follows the FHFA HPI ??  Well, this is the one that traders do care about.  For the third month in a row, consensus for this item is 5.1% y/y, non-seasonally adjusted.  June, and July both disappointed.  Actually, the skew for August is to the high side, so a beat here really would not surprise me all that much.  Don’t forget, outside of September New Home Sales, housing has been the one macro bright spot of late.
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09:45
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Markit Services Flash PMI (October):  Nobody cares.  They probably should, given that the ISM doesn’t do “Flash” releases, but the kid to your left, and the kid to your right will not notice this print when it hits the tape.
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10:00
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Consumer Confidence (October):  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence has been highly optimistic all Summer, and has been less volatile than the University of Michigan’s similar Consumer Sentiment data-point.  September’s print cam in at a very strong 103, and the number for October is expected to tail off only slightly.  Wonder who they’re talking to ??  This one does not pack the market punch that it used to.
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October):  Can they do it ??  With the miserable print out of Dallas yesterday, it’s up to Richmond to complete the sweep.  If Richmond can print in negative territory (and consensus is -3), then….. for the second consecutive month, all regional Fed manufacturing districts that release manufacturing data will have printed in contraction.  Party !!  Don’t worry America, they’re probably just going through a thing.
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16:00
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Not a Fed Speaker:  Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is scheduled to speak at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, DC.  The topic ??  What else…..the looming debt ceiling.  Congress is sure to get a tongue lashing.
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Earnings
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Before the Open:  BABA (.54), BMY (.35), BP (.07), DD (.10), F (.46), IR (1.16), MMC (.60), MAS (.32), PFE (.50), UPS (1.37), WM (.71)
After the Close:  AAPL (1.87), TWTR (.05), UHS (1.58)
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Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
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SPX: 2095, 2087, 2077, 2070, 2063, 2055
RUT: 1178, 1173, 1166, 1159, 1154, 1145
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2015 World Series
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Game One: New York Mets (Harvey 13-8, 2.71) at Kansas City Royals (Volquez 13-9, 3.55)
Prediction:  No way, I’m not even gonna say it.