Global equities are mostly lower. Bucking the trend are Chinese shares…. Both the Shanghai Composite, and particularly the ChiNext (small caps) are higher. Throw in the Nikkei (Japan), and the Kospi (South Korea). Why are those markets higher? Why… hopes for new, or increased easing of monetary policy, of course. Europe lower ?? Well….you see….. The Bank of England’s Ian McCafferty, as well as the ECB’s Ewald Nowotny & Christian Noyer have all been speaking like hawks. The ECB is due to make a policy decision this Thursday morning.
You all know that I grew up in Queens, NY. I wear it on my sleeve. Heroin addiction, however is something that I am way too familiar with. Doctors screw with prescriptions; the addiction can and will evolve…..but,….The addict/patient is really never OK again. That addict, and those around the addict are forced into a new normal, a normal that never feels normal again. Any before, and after comparisons are apples, and oranges. See what I’m getting at here, gang?
Again today, there is not a load of macro for us to look at, but at least what we do have is high profile. In fact, today’s September prints for Housing Starts, and Permits, along with Thursday’s Existing Home Sales will be the most focused upon data-points of our week. We saw contraction in both July, and August for Housing Starts. The expectation for September is for an increase to 1.15 million (SAAR) units, breaking the losing streak. Permits, though plummeting badly in July, did bounce in August. we think that September comes in around 1.16 million units (SAAR), which though slightly lower, would indicate some stability at this level. These numbers will hit the tape at 08:30 ET. Rounding out the macro for today, will be the weekly Redbook number at 08:55 ET.
Getting back to our theme….What would be a day without a little unwanted noise out of the Fed? Yep, we’ll have three of those maniacs flapping their gums once again today. New York Fed Pres. William Dudley, and Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell will speak from New York at 9am, and 9:15 respectively. Their topic is expected to be the evolving market structure for US Treasuries. The big fish herself, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will make some brief remarks from the US Labor Department in Washington, DC at 11am. It does not look to me, like any of the three will speak on policy, or take questions, but you better know that the threat exists.
Today is Tuesday. I have always found that when you’re nice to the guy, or gal next to you on a Tuesday, they are usually nice to you on a Wednesday. Make your mother proud. Be nice to the kid next to you today. God bless.
Before the open: BK (.71), CP (2.68), HOG (.78), LMT (2.72), VZ (1.02)
After the close: CMG (4.63), YHOO (.16)
Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
SPX: 2051, 2043, 2034, 2029, 2023, 2013, 2006
RUT: 1178, 1173, 1168, 1162, 1156, 1152, 1146