Market Recon Thursday

Good Morning,
                       Equity markets are for the most part…a bit soft this morning, after yesterday’s late rally on Wall Street.  The Bank of Japan will make their policy announcement tonight/tomorrow morning, after they see Unemployment, and CPI data.  Last night, for Japan, September Industrial Production surprised to the upside.  Whether or not that will be enough for the BOJ to put off any additional monetary easing we will know soon enough.  As for our own monetary policy, it appears that if you all get a fat raise next month, your neighbor finds a job, everyone you know goes on a spending spree & pays up for their purchases by using credit cards, that nice young couple down the block buys a home, and last, but not least….global demand returns with a vengeance….well then, we can all look forward to an increase in the Fed Funds Rate in December.
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What’s Out to Get You Today
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08:30
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GDP (Q3):  Now, that the Fed is temporarily out of the way, except for the conga line of public speakers that we always see after a policy announcement, this is the highest focus piece of macro that we’ll get.  Gone are the euphoric days of the second quarter where dreams of a warming Sun, and a seasonally adjusted, annualized quarterly GDP of 3.9% filled our childish heads with thoughts of joy.  Expectations for the third quarter are for something like 1.6%, with a range spanning from 1% to 2.5%.  Catalysts for the drop-off in the pace of economic growth are expected to be a reduction in inventory building, and a lack of demand from abroad.  Good news is that there is hope….. the fourth quarter is starting out so….oh, uh, never mind.
Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly):  We expect to remain well inside the recent range for this item.  Consensus is for 264K, with the range of economists spanning from 254K to 270K, so…. not too much of a variety of opinion here.  The week that we get a shock in this space, it will truly be just that, a shock.
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09:10
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Fed Speaker:  Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart will speak from Washington, DC.  Apparently, there is no truth to the rumor that as a boy, he was bitten by a radioactive spider.
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10:00
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Pending Home Sales (September):  Possibly the least exciting piece of the housing pie.  Personally, I think that this is an important slice of macro, but traders don’t react to it, and it will be overlooked by the earlier data.  Maybe they should watch this one more closely.  After all, Pending Home Sales do turn into Existing Home Sales, and that is the big fish in housing.  Consensus = +1.1% m/m, Prior = -1.4% m/m.
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10:30
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Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly):  Only the wicked, and the naïve will dare.  Not this guy.
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Thursday’s Earnings Highlights
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Before the Open: AET (1.75), ALU (.04), MO (.75), CCE (.81), COP (-.36), DLPH (1.27), GCI (.37), GT (.97), MA (.87), NYT (.06), POT (.38), RDS.A (.54), SHW (3.87), SNE (19.74), TWC (1.54)
After the Close: BIDU (1.30), EA (.44), LNKD (.45), NSR (1.12), SCTY (-1.94)
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World Series
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                      Our New York National baseball Club seems to have gotten themselves into a jam out in Kansas City.  Fear not, the Amazins’ were down 2-0 way back in 1986, the last time they actually did go all the way, and the next three games are at Shea, where the Mets were dominant this season.  (Not a typo, I’m still calling it Shea)  There is interesting chatter that at their next policy meeting, in December, on top of a possible interest rate increase, the FOMC will also consider declaring the DH Rule a failed experiment, allowing the American League to return to the majors after 43 years of AAAA baseball.
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Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
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SPX: 2103, 2095, 2086, 2078, 2070, 2062
RUT: 1190, 1185, 1178, 1172, 1166, 1158