Show of military force in Beijing “celebrating WW2″…. Chinese Navy ships cruising around Alaska… Support in Congress (party loyalty over common sense) for an Iranian Nuke deal that doesn’t seem like much of a deal, unless you’re Iranian. Hey, at least they freed the host…..oh wait. Never mind. What could possibly go wrong? The Mets won. They’re off tonight. May have to watch a sitcom.
The European Central Bank will step to the plate this morning. While most experts do not expect any actual change to monetary policy at this time (repeat: at this time), you did witness something of a sellers’ strike yesterday afternoon, as…at least from this old dog’s point of view, some of these kids seemed a little frightened of getting short, or even participating at all on the sell side, in front of Mario. Perhaps, his gang will mess with their inflation target, no guarantees there. The press conference will matter. ECB Pres. Mario Draghi can sweet talk the marketplace with the best of them. Maybe even more so than Narayana Kocherlakota, because Mr. Draghi actually has an impact on decision making. BTW, the President of the Minneapolis Fed will be speaking tonight (well after the closing bell) from Missoula, Montana.
Another busy day of domestic macro beckons. Two items will hit the tape at 08:30 ET, one will pass unnoticed by the trading community… that’s July’s Trade Balance. The other is our weekly print for Initial Jobless Claims. Consensus calls for a very consistent 273K, up slightly from last week’s 271K. The four week moving average for this flat lining item is…..drum roll please…..273K. How did you know? After we get through the opening bell, we’ll run the same drill that we ran on Tuesday for the manufacturing sector for August, only this time, for the service crowd. Markit will print their much ignored number at 09:45 ET. This one “flashed” at 55.2 last Tuesday. The ISM will release their data at 10am. We’re thinking that they’ll get knocked down a couple of notches from July’s robust print of 60.3, hopefully catching above 58. For those of you who enjoy bungee jumping, and the medieval sport of jousting, the weekly Natural Gas Inventory number will print at 10:30 ET. If you’ve never watched that market over the five or six seconds around this print, you really should.
You guys tired? Me neither. No excuses. Let’s do Thursday like we mean it.
Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
SPX: 1979, 1971, 1965, 1956, 1947, 1939
RUT: 1163, 1156, 1149, 1139, 1130, 1125