Market Recon Thursday

Good Morning,
                      Japanese stocks waited all week to open, and when they did…..hooo doggy, that was a bad idea.  the good news is that they were playing catch up, and the rest of the region didn’t catch the beat-down.  In fact, the Shanghai, and India’s Sensex showed us some green on the screen this morning. In Europe, we saw some positive macro regarding the Business Climate in Germany, and Italian Retail Sales.  Unfortunately, good news is bad in an environment dependent upon quantitative easing, and European shares are mostly lower.  Now, that we brought up the macro….. over to you, Sarge.
                      Thanks Sarge….. For those of you who love macro-economic data, and I mean…really…who doesn’t ???… We’ve got a boatload of this stuff to look at today.  Just to make sure you don’t turn into a six year old in a toy store, we’re going to slow this down, and put the pieces into proper focus for you.  So, let’s get fired up.
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08:30 ET
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August Durable Goods Orders:  The markets will pay attention to this one, particularly the Core print, or if you’re new to this…ex-transportation.  At the headline, this item grew fro a second straight month in July.  When we do see this print, although we may get an upward revision, the fun will likely stop there.  Consensus is for -2.0% month over month contraction.  That Core print is expected to squeeze out some minor growth though…something like 0.2% m/m, coming off of July’s 0.6% tag.  It will be close.
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Weekly Initial Jobless Claims:  You can probably look for something of a bounce off of last week’s really low print of 264K.  Think something around 271K, with a range spanning 265K to 280K.  This item has been very consistent for some time now, and a surprise in this space, though not likely could cause a serious knee-jerk in futures markets.
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10:00 ET
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August New Home Sales:  Here you have a another one that market participants like to focus on, with the implications toward job creation, spending on building materials, expansion of credit, and such.  On a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate (Remember SAAR), the Census Bureau has been able to print this little guy above 500K units more often than not since early Spring. Today, we expect that trend to firm up, as consensus is for 516K, up from July’s 507K.  Rock on.
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10:30 ET
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Weekly Natural Gas Inventories:  Definitely not for everyone, but if you’re that kind of guy who thinks of playing chicken on the Jersey Turnpike, while riding a bicycle is interesting, then this may be your cup of tea.  I have traded Natural Gas futures on Thursday mornings, and I have had guns pointed at my head.  Trading Natural Gas is far more frightening.  Actually, it’s not even close.
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11:00 ET
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September Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index: The Empire State, Philly, and Richmond have all stepped to the plate this month, and we are now a very weak Ohhhhh for three.  It’s up to KC today, and Dallas on Monday to try to prevent a clean sweep.  As my little brother used to say when we were little…..”What else could go wrong?”.
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17:00 ET
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Enter the Dragon:  The Fed Chair herself, Empress Janet Yellen will speak rom Amherst, Massachusetts.  She has very courageously agreed to fore-go any question, and answer session.  (Can’t make this stuff up).  The media probably had no questions anyway.  Her speech is entitled….get this …. you’re gonna laugh (I already am) …  “Inflation Dynamics, and Monetary Policy”.  Cuz, ya know…she’s the expert.  OK, gang, let it all out.  Don’t want to hurt yourself.
                 OK, kids, I’m out of ammo.  God bless, be safe…and play to win.
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Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
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SPX: 1956, 1949, 1940, 1932, 1921, 1912

RUT: 1158, 1150, 1144, 1138, 1134, 1129