Market Recon Friday

Good Morning,
                        Unless you watch cartoons all day, you know that Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave a speech last evening in Massachusetts.  We zigged, and we zagged throughout the day on Thursday, and we blamed it all on anticipation of said speech, even though we had a lot of macro to chew on.  Lady Janet did not disappoint.  She sounded sort of hawkish, sort of, kind of promising a rate hike later this year…..maybe…almost.  Actions do speak louder than words, and….not to sound like an old gypsy or anything…but, she did choke on her words.  We have seen many vague attempts at disinformation over the years.  “Show me”.  Regardless, market participants across the globe, with the notable exception of Shanghai rejoiced at the mere perception of clarity from the US central bank.  There’s a lot of green across your screen this morning, kiddies.  Party on.  It may, or then again, it may not last all day.
                        Don’t forget that the Pope is in town today, gang.  You probably want to give yourself extra time to do whatever is that you’ve got to do.  The city will obviously be a mess.  Wherever you find yourself stuck, they probably sell cheeseburgers.  How bad can it be?  You know, I kind of like the way the macro looked in yesterday’s note.  I think I may stick with that layout…at least on days where we have a couple of items to look at.  Speaking of the macro….
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08:30 ET
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Q2 GDP (Final): Our first revision to Q2 GDP came in at a surprisingly high 3.7% q/q when measured in SAAR fashion.  Several areas within the report showed marked improvement from the first estimate two months ago.  Today, the expectation may not be for any kind of significant revision, but a confirmation of an economy growing at a 3.7% clip would be just dandy.  Look for the GDP Price Index to stick at 2.1% q/q SAAR, which btw, happens to be above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.  Just sayin’.  No, he didn’t.  Oh, yes he did.
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09:15 ET
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Fed Speaker: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will speak on monetary policy from St. Louis.  Bullard is not a voting member of the FOMC this year, but has been openly critical of the FOMC’s indecision last week, which automatically gives him more credibility than the rest of that gang at the Fed.
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09:45 ET
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September Service Sector Flash PMI: Not highly focused on, this data-point is likely to slip through the cracks unnoticed.  That said, I do find it quite interesting.  I just don’t think that Americans have ever really caught on to the data set released by Markit every month.  The projection for this item today is for a 55.5 tag, which would be up slightly from August’s 55.2.  There is a slight skew in the range to low side, but very small.  A large surprise here, would indeed surprise me.
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10:00 ET
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September (final) University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment: This data-point carries more weight with traders than a lot of folks realize.  It is closely watched, and can certainly move the marketplace at the time of it’s release.  Consumer Sentiment has fallen off of a cliff since this item peaked in June.  The expectation (hope) is for something of a rebound from September’s absolutely shockingly poor preliminary print of 85.7 to something around 87.  Just for giggles, August’s final print came in at 91.9.  That’s a pretty lousy month, gang.
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13:25 ET
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Fed Speaker: Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George is all set to speak on monetary policy from Omaha, Nebraska.  She is usually more of a policy hawk than most of her peers, and like James Bullard, does not have a vote this year.  Funny, they drag out two hawks the day after the Empress tries to sound hawkish.
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                         It is Friday.  Once you get through all of this, and for those of you working in NYC, through winding your way around town today, you will have made it.  Then you can relax.  Until then, be the example.  If you would be embarrassed if your Mother, or your children could see you at any point, then you probably shouldn’t do it.  Now, get out there, and lead the way.  No excuses. No fear.
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Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
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SPX: 1971, 1962, 1956, 1949, 1939, 1930, 1921

RUT: 1163, 1158, 1150, 1144, 1138, 1134, 1130