As I settle in on my train ride, and start typing out this note, I can see, though it is dark, and raining outside that our planet is indeed a green planet. Asian stocks are all up to varying degrees, and European stocks…whoa baby. They’re all up a rough 2%. On top of this, US equity index futures are trading at the highs of the over-night, well above last night’s closes. Perhaps all of the joy in Europe can be tied to some lousy macro out of that region. All in one session, German Retail Sales, German Unemployment, EMU Unemployment, and the headline EMU CPI all missed expectations. Party on dudes. Oh wait, bad news is good news…. PARTY ON DUDES !! Tonight……multiple PMI numbers out of China. Oh, the fun never ends.
Trader types have all been watching out for a re-test of the August lows. Was that it yesterday. We came awfully close, but somehow I thought that such a re-test would come on bigger volume than that. Looking back in a few months, we will all know if that was our re-test, or if we are simply foolish mortals. My gut is that we get another bloody nose (or two, or eight) before these breadcrumbs lead us out of the woods. Working today? You probably should read Sue Chang’s article at MarketWatch today. It’s short and to the point. Sue points out that September 30th ends up negative for stocks 62% of the time in the post-war period, which makes it the worst performing day of the year over that time frame. So much for end of quarter mark-ups.
We’ve got some macro-economic data on our table today. More than likely, however, by the end of the day, Fed speakers will steal the focus of the financial community….again. That said, let’s get on with the macro. At 08:15 ET, we’ll see the ADP Employment Report for September. This one is supposed to be something of a predictor for the Private Payrolls portion of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls number. The validity of this number as such a predictor is debatable. What’s not debatable is that at 08:15, the futures market will react to this print. Expectations for this item today are for a rough 191k, which would be in line with the August print.
There are two more macro items on our docket. The September Chicago PMI will hit the tape at 09:45 ET. This diffusion index, that is based on a Chicago area survey of purchasing managers is still worth a look, but does not carry the impact in the markets that it used to. Consensus for today is for something close to 53.4, off of the pace of August 54.4. There is a skew in the range to the low side of consensus. What could end up being the most important number released today could just be the weekly Oil Inventories print at 10:30 ET. We saw a contraction in supply last week, and the experts are looking for another one today.
Now, for that rascally bunch. Yes, the Fed speakers. They say that “Seasons don’t fear the reaper”, but the markets….they certainly do fear the Fed Chair. Janet Yellen will speak at 14:00 ET this afternoon from St. Louis. Word on the street is that she’s well hydrated. Before we get there, though, New York Fed Pres. William Dudley will step to the plate in the Big Apple at 8am ET, and long after the closing bell….Fed Gov. Lael Brainard speaks at 19:00 ET, also from St. Louis.
Reminder….. Chinese PMI party tonight. All the cool kids are going.
Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
(Yes, there are so many these days, but that’s the environment that we’re in)
SPX: 1921, 1915, 1909, 1902, 1896, 1891, 1879, 1872
RUT: 1110, 1104, 1099, 1094, 1090, 1084, 1079, 1075