Stanley Fischer had a message for you. In fact, it appears that most of the Fed officials at the big pow-wow in Jackson Hole felt the same way. Basically, to make it short, the turbulence seen in financial markets of late has not had a significant impact on the Fed’s decision making process as far as getting the Fed Funds Rate off of zero some time this year goes. I can live with that. You all know that I am something of a policy hawk, and while I often doubt the Fed, there’s no way in heck that the fair price of credit is close to zero if the economy is really expanding at an annualized rate of 3.7%. Yes this should cause dollar appreciation, and that is a risk, but these guys are starting to see consumer level inflation (outside of crude, and imports) on the horizon. Wouldn’t you rather have this gang out in front of inflation than chasing it? I know that I can’t be the only one old enough to remember how lousy that felt, and how desperate the morale of the average American citizen was at that time.
US Futures markets are lower this morning in response to Jackson Hole. European equity markets are also down a rough percent, but that could be due, as much to disappointing numbers as anything that any central banker might have said. This morning, German Retail Sales, French Consumer Spending, and Italian Unemployment all missed consensus, and in the case of German Retail Sales….. missed badly.
From a macro perspective, a busy week will get off to a sleepy start today. All we have to look at today are a couple of tertiary items that traders generally do not react to. At 09:45 ET, the Chicago ISM, will release the Chicago PMI, an item that used to garner a lot off attention as a tone setter for the national picture (which you’ll get tomorrow). Maybe today, with a light schedule, you’ll get a reaction. The expectation is for slight improvement to something like 54.8 (ish). When you’re not sure, make sure you always add an ish. “Don’t wait up for me honey….I’ll be home late-ish” At 10:30 ET, you can probably expect that the Dallas Fed will let us know that their manufacturing sector losing streak has continued. There are no earnings releases that you need to be cognizant of, and it looks to me as if the Fed crowd may sleep in after their party out west. They will be out and about this week, however. As a reminder, we’ll get key Chinese PMI data tonight, and there will be global impact.
It’s Monday morning, gang. Crank it up. Your family is counting on you. Providing is one thing. To be a shining example of what you would want your children to be, that’s another.
Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
SPX: 2012, 2005, 1993, 1986, 1979, 1972, 1955, 1947
RUT: 1178, 1172, 1167, 1162, 1156, 1149, 1140, 1132