Market Recon Friday

Good Morning,
                       China?  Sure the Shanghai Composite is up again today, but that kind of news is sooooo Tuesday.  There’s a new sheriff in town, and it’s the old sheriff.  Goes by the name of Crude.  Oil that is, Black Gold.  So, now we do know that much of that price action yesterday was indeed initiated by short coverings.  We also know that the gains were exacerbated by Venezuela linking arms with the Sovie…err Putin to try to get a whole bunch (OPEC) of oil producers to go ahead, and cut production.  Good luck on that one.  I’m guessing the Saudis have probably already though of this…. and rejected it.  Let’s just see what Crude, and the energy sector do this morning.  If I were a betting man…. hey wait, I’m not a betting man.  You’re on your own with this one.
                      When the clock in New York strikes 08:30, you’ll be hit by a triple headed monster.  The Hydra??  Good guess, but no.  That’s when the Bureau of economic Analysis will release it Personal Income, and Outlays report for July.  What the data will include will be Personal Income, Consumer Spending, and the all important PCE Price Index.  In other words, there’s a lot of stuff in there that the Fed looks at.  Most economists are expecting that both Income, and Spending grew by 0.4% m/m, which would keep Income on it’s recent pace, and would be a pop for Spending.  That brings us to Janet Yellen’s favorite measure of consumer level inflation.  I am kind of a nerd, but I’ve got to tell you, that I have a favorite baseball team.  I have a favorite flavor of ice cream…. but I don’t really have a favorite measure of consumer level inflation.  They all rot.  That said, we’re looking for m/m growth of 0.1% at both the core, and the headline.
                     What we can not forget about is the University of Michigan’s final Consumer Sentiment print for August.  The mid-August print disappointed at 92.9, but keep in mind that the very similar Consumer Confidence print put together by the Conference Board on Tuesday surprised big to the upside.  Keep in mind that this print generally does move the market when it is released, gang.  You also can’t rule out that somebody in Jackson Hole says something stupid…… or smart.
                      Anybody who saw Carlos Torres, and Dan Murphy play hacky sack last night, knows the Mets are different this year.  Surely the MLB play of the week.  It’s Friday, my fine bunch of pals.  Finish line is right in front of you.  Stay focused, and let’s get everybody out of here in one piece.  God bless.
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Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
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SPX: 2121, 2012, 2005, 1992, 1980, 1973, 1955, 1947
RUT: 1172, 1167, 1162, 1157, 1149, 1140, 1132, 1126