As I start typing out this note, Greece’s creditors (The IMF) have apparently rejected the latest proposal made by Greece. As you might expect, there has been some early zigging in the markets, when you may have been looking for some zagging. Greek (and European) equities have turned south, as have our futures markets. Same goes for the debt markets, with the exception being made for those who enjoy safe haven status. These guys may talk about tonight, or tomorrow as deadlines, but we all know that 30 June is when the big bill is due. The two sides still have to agree on pensions, and the Value Added Tax. They likely will take all the time that they can while playing chicken with each other. Until then, all we have is headline manipulation, which does push the financial markets around. Seems legit. Or not. Oh, and even if a deal is struck, the whole ball of wax has to get through the appropriate legislative bodies. That should be real fun.
Today, at 08:30 ET, we will get our final revision to Q1 GDP. This is an economist’s event, not a trader’s event. It is however, still very interesting. Unless we get some kind of crazy number that demands an emergency policy meeting, and mid-day rate hike from the FOMC (Yes, gang, we actually got those when I was a younger man), it really is not a trade-able event. Last month, this item was revised down from +0.2% to -0.7%. Keep in mind, there are a lot of bells and whistles attached to this item, The growth, or lack thereof, is first measured on a quarter over quarter basis, then it is seasonally adjusted, and annualized. Most economists seem to expect this revision to print closer to 0% today, with -0.2% apparently the consensus. The range spans from -0.4% to +0.1%. It would be funny (I guess) if the economy never really contracted in the first quarter after all. After that, at 10:30 ET, the weekly Oil Inventories print is expected to sport an eighth consecutive contraction in supply. Bear in mind that Gasoline Inventories are also part of this release, and they surprised to the upside last week.
Now, I want you to look in the mirror, or the darkened window on your subway train….or just close your eyes. Think about the man, or woman that you are; that you’ve become. You’ve hung in there well. So, stay in there. Rise. Dig that trench. Here is where we make that stand. Look to your left, and to your right. We’ve all got tough stuff, but together is the only way we win. Pay attention to each other. Love each other. Now, go do this thing. God bless.
Sarge’s TRADING LEVELS
SPX: 2147, 2135, 2128, 2120, 2113, 2106, 2098
RUT: 1308, 1304, 1299, 1294, 1289, 1283, 1278