Market Recon Tuesday

Good Morning,

                     Today is the day that Greece is expected to default on an approximate $1.72 B payment to the IMF.  There are last ditch efforts to get both sides back to the bargaining table, so anything can still happen, and headlines remain the greatest risk to your money as we proceed.  Talk about risk….how about what happened in China this morning.  Volatility is not a strong enough word for this.  As you know, the Shanghai Composite has been getting slapped around for about a month.  Well, this morning, that index opened in sell-off mode.  The index was down over 5%, and then the sell-off was over.  The shares began to rally, and it kept on going until the Shanghai Composite closed up 5.5% for the day.  Ridiculous.
                    Did you ever think that the employment situation would be overlooked by the markets during “Jobs Week”?  Me neither.  Well, it looks to me as if that day has come.  For now.  There is some macro out there today, but the market will not fixate on it.  The most important number due today is probably the April release (9am ET) for the Case-Shiller HPI.  The 20 city, non-seasonally adjusted, year over year print (the one traders follow) is expected to show 5.3% growth, up from 5.0% in March.  You’ll also see The Chicago PMI at 09:45 ET, which is not what it used to be in terms of trader impact, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence at 10am.  That one still has some luster.
                   With the Greek, and Puerto Rican debt crises threatening the Fed’s attempt to lift the Fed Funds Rate later this year, you may have noticed that yesterday, those who lay odds on a September rate lift off, drastically reduced those odds. Fed speakers could impact markets even more so than usual.  I have none of the radar for regular trading hours, but NY Fed Pres. William Dudley will speak from Brussels well before markets open here, and St’ Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard will speak tonight, well after today’s closing bell at 11 Wall Street.  Dudley has an FOMC vote, Bullard does not this year.  Stay sharp.  Don’t lose your edge, and good luck.
Sarge’s Trading Levels:
SPX: 2090, 2080, 2071, 2063, 2057, 2052, 2042
RUT: 1265, 1259, 1253, 1248, 1243, 1235, 1227