Market Recon Thursday

Good Morning,

                     Good news !!  If you’re up early in the morning, reading stuff like this….then you’ve already proven that you’re in the fight.  Half of winning a fight is simply showing up for it.  The rest takes some brains, and some guts.  I bet you’ve got that too, so let’s do Thursday.

                     There’s kind of a lot on your plate today, in fact there’s too much to focus on.  Sooooo, let’s burn off some of this haze.  That way, you trader types can key in on what’s important, and get rid of what’s just noise.  First off…… just throw out the Q1 Current Account print at 08:30 ET, and the Conference Board’s Leading Indicators at 10am.  They may be important to economists, they may important to some kid writing a term paper.  They don’t make markets move, and they won’t make you money.  Gone.

                     Today, we do get the CPI.  A day after the FOMC announcement, we’ll get a read on consumer level inflation.  Party on, dudes.  At 08:30 ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will hit us with these numbers.  The headline consensus is for a m/m increase of 0.5%.  The skew seems to me to be on the low side, but a little birdie (who is smarter than I) told me that it may come in just a smidge higher than consensus.  Can’t wait to find out.  The Core print is expected to post a gain of 0.2% m/m.  Same little birdie told me that the core may come in a bit light.  Forget money, I’m bird watching.
                     There is another key item due at this time.  That’s the weekly Initial Jobless Claims print, which traders generally do overreact to, impacting the futures market. For the Claims number, we’re looking for something close to 277K, with a tight range, so anything outside of 265K to 285K will surprise the crowd.  FYI, there has been no volatility in this report for quite some time.  We’re sitting on the four week moving average.
                     There’s more.  At 10am, the Philadelphia Fed releases their Manufacturing Index, which is usually a focus item, but after the Empire State fell flat on their face earlier in the week, it’s even more important than usual.  The projection (hope) here today is for an improvement from May’s 6.7 to something close to 8.1.  After that, the Nat Gas crowd gets their weekly number at 10:30 ET, and at least economic data-point wise, we then call it day.
Don’t forget to say a prayer for those folks in South Carolina, and their families.  Do it now.